Hotforex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session, and the Nikkei closed with a 0.43% gain as the Yen retreated and markets started to shake off the most recent Trump jitters while the Dollar stabilised. Hong Kong outperformed and most Chinese shares gained amid speculated state intervention to ensure more stability as President Xi Jinping visits Davos for the World Economic Forum. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher. The FTSE 100 underperformed yesterday as the Pound bounced back from recent lows, following May’s Brexit speech, but Sterling is already retreating again and this is helping the FTSE to win back lost ground, which could see yields picking up again today, especially as the Bund future already started to come off highs going into yesterday’s close and today’s final German and EMU inflation data for December and UK labour data. Oil held over $52 and GOLD continued in positive mood around the key $1212 level.

German HICP confirmed at 1.7% y/y, as expected, with prices up 1.0% m/m. The sharp acceleration from just 0.7% y/y in November was mainly due to base effects from lower energy prices and the breakdown showed that prices for heating oil jumped 21.9% y/y in December, after still falling -6.7% y/y in the previous month. Petrol prices rose 6.0% y/y, after falling -2.2% y/y in December. Still, even excluding household energy and petrol, the annual rate jumped to 1.6% from 1.2% in November and the data will back the critics of Draghi’s expansionary policy in Germany. The Eurozone headline rate, due later today, remains lower, but at 1.1% has also been trending higher – at least for now. But with growth picking up and the labor markets improving, there is the risk of second round effects, especially in areas where wage indexation still remains in place.

UK PM May Speech: UK PM confirmed that Brexit really does mean Brexit, setting a course for the UK to make a “clean” break from the EU, meaning a departure from single market membership and the customs union. That is the bottom line from her long-awaited, platitude -laden (Britain to be “truly global … profoundly internationalist” etc etc) keynote speech that is laying the government’s four principles and 12 negotiation priorities for Brexit. Among the highlights, May confirmed that the Brexit deal will be subject to parliamentary approval, which should not be too much of a surprise but has still gone down well in markets, sparking a rally in the pound, which has built on gains seen after hotter than expected UK inflation data earlier. Cable rallied by 3% at seven week highs above 1.2400, putting in some distance from Mondays’ three-month lows that were seen just under 1.2000.

US Data: The Empire State headline drop to 6.5 trimmed the December surge to an 8-month high of 7.6 (was 9.0) from 2.2 (was 1.5) in November and a pre-election -5.5 (was -6.8) in October, leaving a big net climb despite the January setback. And, the component data beat estimates to leave an ISM-adjusted Empire State rise to 50.7 from 48.8 (was 48.9) in December, 47.3 (was 47.2) in November, and 46.9 (was 46.3) in October, with small annual revisions that did little to alter the trajectory. We expect a January Philly Fed drop-back to 14.0 after the December spike to a 2-year high of 19.7, a Richmond Fed drop to 7.0 from 8.0, a Dallas Fed rise to 16.0 from 15.5, a Chicago PMI rise to 55.0 from 54.6, an ISM downtick to 54.5 from a 2-year high of 54.7, and an ISM-NMI downtick to 57.0 from a 1-year high of 57.2 over the past two months. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to rise to a 2-year high of 54 in January from 53 in November and December, 51 in October and 50 in August and September.

FedSpeak: Fed governor Brainard said more rapid rate hikes are likely if fiscal policy changes quickly eliminate labor market slack, but a gradual path of rate hikes will be appropriate so long as inflationary pressures are muted. She sees fiscal change that persistently raises aggregate demand alone could reduce the ability of fiscal policy to respond to future shock. Brainard views risks for the domestic economy as closer to balanced than they have been in a long time, while full employment remains in reach and could be sustainable with the right policy mix. Like the risks she cites, her views are pretty balanced. NY Fed dove Dudley is optimistic about the U.S. expansion, expecting it to continue, though “long in the tooth.” He doesn’t think Fed action will snuff out the expansion anytime soon as inflation is not a problem. He sees pressure on labor resources increasing, but quite slowly, while dollar strength will pressure import prices lower and limit domestic producers from raising prices. Dudley sees household finances in unusually good shape at this stage in the cycle, while challenges in retail are not due to aggregate demand but changing consumer demands.

Davos Speak: (from BBC) IMF managing director Christine Lagarde will discuss Squeezed and Angry: How to Fix the Middle Class Crisis along with renowned economist Larry Summers who served in the Obama administration. Government ministers from UAE, Egypt and Tunisia will examine The Future of Arab Economies. Economists Kenneth Rogoff, Joseph Stiglitz and Larry Summers are part of a discussion on Economics for the Global Commons. Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customers will be involved in a discussion on The European Disunion. Joe Biden, US VP for just two more days, will give a special address at the forum this morning. And in the afternoon Al Gore will talk about climate change. Of interest will be an interview with Jack Ma, founder of China’s internet giant Alibaba.

Main Macro Events Today

Yellen Speech – (20:00 GMT) – “The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them” at the Commonwealth Club, in San Francisco. Possible policy implications ahead of Trump inauguration on Friday.

US CPI – The December headline CPI is expected to grow 0.3%, while the core index rises 0.2%.Forecast risk: downward, as oil prices gave up some of their gains in November.Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of additional rate hikes. Energy prices are expected to remain flat, with a 1% gasoline price increase. Food prices have risen by 0.1%-0.4% per month over the past three years, though the drought in California had an upward effect with last year’s 0.5% May rise being the largest since August of 2011.

BOC Rate Decision – The consensus outlook is no change to the 0.50% rate setting today alongside a cautiously constructive view of the growth and inflation outlook. The base-case policy assumption remains for no change in rates this year, followed by an eventual shift to modest rate increases by the middle of 2018.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Nikkei and Topix, while the drop in energy prices added to pressure on Chinese stocks with energy producers and miners leading the way down. The front end WTI future has lifted somewhat, but remains firmly below USD 52 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, while FTSE 100 futures are posting gains, despite a stronger Pound. In Europe the focus turns to today’s ECB announcement, where Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold and will be under pressure to defend the ECB’s QE extension as inflation lifts higher and growth remains strong. The calendar also has Swiss producer price inflation and Eurozone BoP and current account data for November.

BOC: Larger Question Marks on the Outlook; The Bank of Canada delivered the widely expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting alongside a modestly more upbeat domestic and global growth outlook. The outlook is largely similar to October, but the degree of uncertainty has increased according to Governor Poloz. Hence, the Governor, in his Q&A, said that a rate hike remains on the table. While the outlook remains very uncertain, consensus is to see no change in rates for an extended period as the most sensible base-case policy scenario.

Fed Chair Yellen: Said she can’t give the timing of the next hike, but noted the Fed is close to meeting its twin goals, in her comments at The Commonwealth Club. As suggested by the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the dot-plot, she noted that she and most of her colleagues expect “a few” rate hikes a year. The next tightening will be a function of the economy over the coming months (that suggests a March move is unlikely). It makes sense for the Fed to gradually reduce monetary policy support.

US Data: U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production rise thanks to a 6.6% utility output surge that reversed the prior 9.7% weather-induced 3-month drop, alongside a 1.8% vehicle assembly rate bounce before a likely January drop-off, and a 0.7% business equipment rise that reversed a 0.7% November decline. Expectations are for a resumption of positive industrial production growth in 2017 led by a 2.4% Q1 clip, after a 0.6% weather-induced Q4 contraction rate that left a 7th decline over the last 9 quarters. We also saw the expected December CPI headline gain of 0.3% (0.282%), though the core price rise of 0.2% rounded down from a surprisingly firm 0.230% gain that sets the tone for bigger price gains in 2017.

Davos Speak: (from the BBC) Bills Winters and Briyan Moynihan, of Standard Chartered and Bank of America respectively, will be part of a panel examining the Global Banking Outlook.–Santander chairwoman Ana Botin forms part of a discussion on Which Europe Now?-Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, will discuss A Leader’s Resilience. Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and founder of Bayshore Global Management, will be sharing his ideas. Bill Gates and GSK boss Andrew Witty take part in a discussion on CEPI: A Global Initiative to Fight Epidemics. Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss the Global Energy Outlook. The UK PM Theresa May will pitch her Brexit plan to leaders and the Russian deputy PM Igor Shuvalov will talk about Russia’s place in the world.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate & Statement – ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold after clarifying the policy outlook through to the end of the year, with purchase targets cut back to EUR 60 bln again from April. The ECB obviously tried to create some stability at least on the monetary front amid heightened uncertainty on the political front ahead of the Brexit talks and amid the change in U.S. administration. However, with inflation jumping higher, the central bank’s policy is coming under more scrutiny again and much of the press conference will likely be an exercise in trying to play down the importance of the rise in HICP to the highest level since 2013 as the ECB is heading for a further expansion of its balance.


US Housing Starts – Should reveal an increase in the pace of starts to 1,184k from 1,090k in November and a recent high 1,340k in October. Permits should climb to a 1,230k pace from 1,212k in November and completions should be 1,100k from 1,216k in November.

US Phili Fed Index – Should reveal a headline decline to 15.1 from 19.7 in December and 8.7 in November. Revisions to the Philly Fed were released last week and lowered December’s headline slightly. More broadly, producer sentiment is expected to remain firm in January with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 54 from 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, after U.S. and European shares closed in the red Thursday. Japan and mainland China bourses managed to move higher (Chinese GDP beat expectations at 6.8%), but investors are cautious ahead of the inauguration of President elect Donald Trump. Bund futures managed to move up from lows yesterday, after Draghi re-affirmed the central bank’s commitment to further QE and kept the easing bias in place, despite the jump in inflation, but yields still moved higher and the DAX closed in negative territory yesterday. Gilts and FTSE 100 underperformed. Today’s European calendar is pretty quiet, with only German PPI at the start of the session and U.K. retail sales, which will leave the focus firmly on the U.S.

German PPI inflation jumped to 1.0% y/y in December from 0.1% y/y in the previous month. Not a total surprise considering the sharp acceleration in import price inflation previously and the pick up in HICP that month. Still, the numbers serve to highlight that the rebound in inflation is well and truly underway, even if producer prices remain the main driving factor so far. Indeed, the breakdown showed that energy prices were up 0.2% y/y, after falling -1.7% in the previous month, while non-durable goods prices jumped 2.1% y/y, after 1.5% y/y in November. With growth continuing strong, however, and the labour market looking very tight, while house price inflation is also picking up sharply, the risk of second round inflation effects are rising at least in Germany, although for now that doesn’t seem to impress Draghi too much, who yesterday confirmed the ECB expansionary course for the year.

FX Update: The dollar has settled moderately lower, by about 0.2% versus the other majors, as markets brace for Trump’s inauguration later today, hungry for further detail on his plans for fiscal and trade policies. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 115.00 after rallying strongly over the previous two days. Resistance is marked at 115.31, which marks the present situation of the 50-day moving average. The 20-day average is at 115.65. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.06s, about a big figure up on yesterday’s low at 1.0589. Cable has settled around 1.2350, also about a big figure higher relative to yesterday’s low while remaining below the week’s high at 1.2616 and the 50-day moving average, at 1.2400.

BOC: Fed Chair Yellen: She was less hawkish yesterday and toned down her earlier policy stance. “Gradual monetary adjustments were prudent”, although she warned against letting the economy run hot. Yet on Wednesday she had cautioned that waiting too long to raise rates could lead to “too much inflation, financial instability, or both,” amid comments by other Fed officials that also favoured faster hikes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a YoY to increase to 7.3% with a flat December at 0.2%.

Canada CPI – Expectations are for unchanged (0.0%) in December versus November, contrasting with what is usually a sizable pull-back in this not seasonally adjusted index during December. Our projection for the steady reading on December month comparable CPI is due to the collision of the typical seasonal decline with a hefty increase in gasoline prices. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.7% y/y pace in December from 1.2% in November.

President Trump Speech – 14:00 GMT – Expect the unexpected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

https://analysis.hotforex.com/


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.

FX News Today

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to “Make America Great Again”. The unapologetic dogmatic “America First” rhetoric caused markets to pause on protectionism and trade barriers. The media once gain came under scrutiny over claim and counter claim from the new administration for attendances at the inauguration, and the women’s led demonstrations on Saturday. The NAFTA came under immediate review, the new Presidents tax returns will not be released “People didn’t care. They voted for him” (Kellyanne Conway) and the USD sold off significantly at the beginning of the new trading week.

United States: The week starts with existing home sales (Tuesday) forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is due, alongside the EIA energy inventory report. The Advance trade report is forecast (Thursday) to show wider deficit to the tune of $65.7 bln in December, while the Chicago Fed national activity index is on tap, along with an expected 20k rebound in initial jobless claims to 254k for the week ended January 21. New home sales are expected to sink 2.0% to a 580k unit pace in December. Advance Q4 GDP is projected to sink to 2.0% from 3.5% in Q3 (Friday), Durable goods orders are expected to rebound 2.5% in December vs -4.5% previously and final Michigan sentiment is seen revised up to 98.5 in January from 98.1 initially.

Fedspeak runs dry this week after the flurry from Yellen and company last week, though it is entirely possible that some impromptu remarks could be forthcoming. Overall, even the doves now appear wary of unleashing fiscal stimulus with the jobless rate down at 4.7% and core CPI inflation topping 2.2% y/y — levels that Yellen suggested are consistent with the Fed’s twin goals.

Canada: Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October. The establishment survey (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 0.1% gain in average weekly earnings during November after the 0.1% dip in October. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Governor Poloz delivers a speech at the University of Alberta School of Business on January 31.

Europe: Eurozone markets will be looking to the U.S. this week, as investors await more guidance on U.S. economic policies going ahead, but also on the future relationship between Europe and the U.S. and the implications for Nato. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while we see the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4. French business confidence is seen steady at 106, and the German Ifo Business Climate reading is expected to rise to 111.3 from 111.0 in December

UK: PM May last week at a long-awaited keynote speech on Brexit set the course for the UK to make a “clean break” from the EU. This cleared up a chunk of uncertainty, helping put a floor under the beleaguered pound. Cable rallied by just over 3% in the wake of the speech last Tuesday, helped on its way by a spike in CPI data, in what was the biggest single-day rally the pound has seen since 2008. May will also be the first foreign leader to meet with the new USA President this week. January CBI industrial trends and distributive trades surveys (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively). The first estimate of Q4 GDP is also up (Wednesday), growth of 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y is expected, which would be slightly off the 0.6% and 2.2% pace of Q3. Overall, as-expected outcomes in the data should not have much impact on sterling markets.

China: The docket is empty.

Japan: The December trade balance (Wednesday) should reveal a wider surplus, to JPY 400.0 bln from 150.8 bln in November. December services PPI are penciled in at up 0.3% from the 0.2% increase previously. December national overall CPI (Friday) is seen up 0.1% y/y, down from 0.5% previously. Core CPI is expected at -0.4% y/y, unchanged from November.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted by the CPI (Wednesday), expected to gain 0.6% in Q4 after the 0.7% gain in Q3. The Q4 PPI and trade prices for Q4 are due on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s schedule remains empty this week, with nothing due from the bank until the meeting in early February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

https://analysis.hotforex.com/


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 24th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with Japanese bourses still under pressure (Nikkei closed down 0.55%). despite a dip in the Yen, as USD stabilised. Uncertainty over Trump’s regulatory and trade policies continues to weigh on investor sentiment. News that the U.S. plans to withdraw from the Pacific Rim trade pact, known as Trans-Pascific Partnership and that Trump plans to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement is not helping as a lack of key data on Monday kept markets focused on politics. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while FTSE 100 futures are slightly higher, as Sterling retreated from yesterday’s high. Oil prices are slightly up on the day and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 53 per barrel and Gold holds on to gains at USD 1215. FTSE 100 futures moving slightly higher Bund futures could lose some of yesterday’s gains in opening trade. The calendar has January PMI readings for the Eurozone as well as U.K. public finance data and a final decision from the Supreme Court on EU membership.

FX Update: The dollar found its feet after declining over the last day. USDJPY traded back around the 113.00 level after logging an eight-week low at 112.52 during the early phase of the Asia-Pacific session. Investor worries over a more protectionist U.S. weighed on the dollar, with Trump pulling the nation out of TPP and warning U.S. manufacturers there will be punitive taxes on any goods they make abroad and are sold in the U.S. Japanese preliminary January manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations, but cast little market impact. EURUSD drifted under 1.0750 after making a 1.0772 seven-week high in early Asia-Pacific. Cable ebbed under 1.2500, leaving a six-week peak at 1.2544. AUDUSD and NZDUSD settled lower after logging respective 10-week highs, and USDCAD based after seeing a four-session low.

Trump Executive Orders Signed: 1) formal withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) 2) hiring freeze on federal employees and 3) a ban on U.S. NGOs that receive federal funding from providing abortions abroad. Stocks and yields continue to retrace lower, along with the dollar index as the markets adjust to the new era of unilateralism and activism in the executive branch.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker worries that the FOMC could be getting behind the curve, in an interview on a public radio station in Virginia. He wants the Fed to be a little more aggressive in pushing up rates, versus the views of his colleagues, with the majority on the FOMC projecting 3 quarter-point increases. They are also advocating a very gradual approach to tightening. Note that Lacker is not a voter this year, and has announced he’ll retire on October 1. Fedspeak will go into hibernation today as the informal pre-FOMC blackout period goes into effect.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI’s – Modest improvements across the board are expected following the uptick in the ZEW number. Forecast for the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4 and leave projections for robust growth in Q1 intact.

UK – EU Membership Court Ruling – The United Kingdom’s High Court is due to announce a ruling regarding the government’s ability to bypass parliament and initiate the Brexit by triggering Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, at the Royal Courts of Justice, in London. The expectation is that the UK Parliament WILL have a vote on the procedures surrounding Article 50.

US Existing Home Sales – Forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


https://analysis.hotforex.com/


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 25th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stock markets moved higher, led by Japanese bourses as the country managed to snap a 14-month long run of falling exports, which helped the Nikkei to close with a 1.4% gain (over 19,057.5), despite a stronger Yen. Better than expected corporate earnings are underpinning a rise in global growth optimism that already saw U.S. and European bourses closing higher yesterday and continued to back markets in Asia and the rise in U.S. and FTSE 100 stock futures this morning. The broad improvement in stocks and amid a wider rise in risk appetite already sent yields higher on Tuesday and are likely to continue to put pressure on bond futures today, especially as survey indicators in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey are expected to have improved again at the start of the year, with no signs so far that the looming Brexit is weighing on growth in Europe on either side of the channel. Australian Inflation rose to 1.5% from1.3% last quarter, but missed expectations (i.e. 1.6%). AUDUSD fell overnight from 0.7600 and currently trades at 0.7520.

US data: U.S. reports revealed a surprising 2.8% December existing home sales drop despite mild weather in November and early December that sometimes lifts sales with a lag, though Q4 sales overall were boosted by weather, and we have an upwardly-revised 5.65 (was 5.61) November cycle-high and a remarkably lean 1.65 mln December inventory level. The Richmond Fed rise to a 10-month high of 12.0 from 8.0 in December and 4.0 in November, as the producer sentiment climb gains steam with the ongoing factory sector rebound. An employment index bounce to 8.0 from -1.0 adds to the upside risk for our a 190k January nonfarm payroll estimate.

The UK’s Supreme Court ruled against the government in the Brexit case, concluding in the appeal trial that the notification of Article 50 must be subject to a parliamentary vote. The Court also ruled that Scotland and Northern Ireland do not have a veto. The government is now expected to quickly put through a succinctly-worded bill through the House of Parliament and the House of Lords. No one expects that either House will stand in the way of the will of the people, but the concern is that it will be subject to amendments, which could draw-out the start of the formal process that will take the UK out of the EU. The ruling on Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests that the government won’t face any obstacle in pushing through with its intention for a “hard” Brexit. The pound, already under pressure ahead of the ruling, extended losses, though has since recouped some lost ground. Sterling is presently showing an average 0.2% decline versus the G3 currencies.

US Treasury Secretary nominee Mnuchin said too-strong a dollar may hurt the economy in a letter to a Senator asking about a hypothetical 25%-dollar rise, according to a Bloomberg report late Monday. He said, “From time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy.” That came in contrast to his confirmation testimony in which he said the “strong dollar is important over the long term,” though he considered it “very, very strong.” The report may have added to the dollar’s wobble yesterday, though it has since recovered from lows. It also suggested that Trump may hold off formally labeling China a “currency manipulator” until after consulting with them first.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 111.3 from 111.0 in December. ZEW investor confidence also improved at the start of the year and even if yesterday’s services reading was a tad weaker than hoped, it is clear that the German recovery remains intact for now, even if Brexit and global political risks mean there is heightened uncertainty going ahead.

New Zealand CPI- Quarterly Inflation figures expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% last time.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

https://analysis.hotforex.com/


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 26th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock rally continued in Asia overnight and the Nikkei closed with a 1.81% gain. The fact that the DOW managed to finally pass the 20000 mark has boosted investor confidence and banks, insurers and brokers led the Toix higher. Rising long term yields are creating a better climate also in Europe where the DAX managed to close above the 11800 mark Wednesday. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are still moving higher and further gains on bourses will likely keep upward pressure on yields and support a further steepening of the yield curve. The FTSE 100 is likely to continue to underperform as Sterling moves higher. OIl prices are also picking up and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 53 per barrel.

BOE Carney Risk in Fintech Boom: Reuters reported, the fast-growing financial technology (Fintech) sector could hold big “systemic risks” for the banking sector and the broader economy which need to be addressed by bank regulators around the world, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Wednesday. “The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that Fintech develops in a way that maximises the opportunities and minimizes the risks for society,” Carney said in his speech. ” After all, the history of financial innovation is littered with examples that led to early booms, growing unintended consequences, and eventual busts.”

New Zealand: The dollar rose to a 2 ½ high after inflation climbed back into the Reserve Bank’s target band, effectively scrapping the prospect of further rate cuts. Government figures yesterday showed that CPI rose 0.4 per cent in the December quarter for an annual increase of 1.3 per cent as the recovery in global oil prices pushed up local petrol costs and as the rampant housing market continues to drive rapid house price gains. The local currency climbed as high as 73.12 US cents, the highest since November 9, and recently traded at 73.07 cents from 72.70 cents immediately before the release, while two-year swaps rose 4 basis points to 2.42 per cent.

German IFO: Unexpectedly drops in January. The headline reading fell to just 109.8 from 111.0 in the previous month, the lowest number since September. The decline was driven largely by a huge drop in expectations reading, which fell back to 103.2, the lowest since August and down from 105.5 in December. The current conditions indicator improved slightly to 116.9 from 116.7 in December. The breakdown showed that contrary to the improvement in the manufacturing PMI yesterday, the manufacturing reading in the Ifo declined, although this was in a broader down move across all sectors. The overall reading remains at high levels, consistent with ongoing growth, but at least the Ifo suggests that growth dynamics have slowed down somewhat at the start of the year.

Main Macro Events Today

UK GDP – Quarterly GDP figures expected to fall to 0.5% from 0.6% last time.

USD Home Sales – December new home sales data expected to show a 2.0% headline decrease to a 580k pace from 592k in November and 563k in October. Other housing measures have been mixed. The NAHB jumped to 69 from 63 in November and starts improved on the month but existing home sales slowed to 5.490 mln from 5.650 mln in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

https://analysis.hotforex.com/


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher overnight, with Nikkei and Topix was trading close to levels last seen in December 2015 as the Yen weakened. The Hang Seng is slightly down, but Asian markets are still heading for a weekly gain, even as the global stock market rally is running out of steam as concerns over a trade war start to dampen global growth optimism. In Europe, only the DAX managed to close with modest gains yesterday, while other markets ended in the red. U.K. stock futures are moving higher this morning as the Pound falls back again, but U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Against that background, we could see a stabilization of long yields, which continued to move higher this week, although it remains to be seen whether the pressure on Eurozone peripherals eases. The calendar today has German import price inflation at the start of the session as well as confidence data out of France and Italy and Eurozone M3 money supply growth.

Japan: The BOJ CPI rose by 0.1% in December. This came in as expected but lower than Novembers 0.2% rise. The increase in global and domestic demand was based on rising stocks, which lead Japanese exporters into a better position. Furthermore, BOJ’s announced a major JGB (Japanese Government Bonds), had a negative influence on the Japanese Yen.

US: reports revealed modest upside surprises for December trade and wholesale inventories, though with a modest December retail inventory shortfall, alongside a 22k initial claims surge in the MLK week to 259k that still left a tight claims trend despite holiday volatility. We also saw a big 10.4% December drop for new home sales to a lean 536k rate led by weakness in the Midwest, as we unwound a likely weather-boost in November, though we also saw a 4.3% median price spike to a $322,500 all-time high with a 4.0% new home inventory rise to a 7-year high of 259k. We saw a big 0.5% U.S. December leading indicators rise that leaves a sharp climb in this measure since March. The day’s mix of data lifted our Q4 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6%, though we trimmed our Q1 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%. We still expect a 190k January nonfarm payroll rise.

UK: Above-forecast preliminary GDP for Q4 cast little market impact, being released after Cable had already made its high. Her Majesty’s pound remains the week’s outperformer out of the currencies we track, presently showing an average 1.6% advance versus the G3 currencies. Cable support is at 1.2623-24, while the December-6 high at 1.2774 provides an upside waypoint. We still see sterling gains versus the dollar as opportunity to establish fresh short positions given Brexit-related uncertainties versus expectations for more Fed tightening and bold economic policies of Trump.

Main Macro Events Today

US UK – President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Teresa May.

US GDP and Durable goods – Quarterly GDP expected to fall to 2.2% from 3.5% in Q3 but above the 1.4% pace in Q2. After a string of contractions, inventories turned positive in Q3 and therefore positive turn back is again expected. December durable goods data expect a 2.0% increase for orders with shipments up 0.7% on the month and inventories up 0.2%. This compares to respective November figures of -4.5% for orders, 0.1% for shipments and 0.2% for inventories.

Michigan CSI – The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and expected to be revised up slightly to 98.2 from 98.1 in December. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month posted an improvement to 55.6 from 54.8 in December and we expect Consumer Confidence to tick up to 114.0 from 113.7 last month.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th January 2017.

FX News Today

Politics will remain omnipresent near term, but economic data and monetary policy will be back in view. There are policy meetings from the FOMC, BOE and BoJ, though they should be uneventful. While it can be debated whether Trump’s bombastic force was the catalyst for the burst in animal spirits, it’s a fact that the Dow is 9.6% higher since Election day, and has crossed the 20k barrier for the first time ever. The German Dax is up a mighty 12.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei has risen an impressive 13.4%. Even the FTSE is up 7.2% despite worries Brexit would cause a crash. Consumer and business sentiment indicators (including PMIs) from around the world have increased measurably. The FOMC meets for the first time this year. There’s no press conference or release of estimates this time, so the focus will be exclusively on the policy statement. No one anticipates any action at this point, but we’ll be looking for clues on the timing of the next rate hike.

United States: This week’s heavy data slate is loaded with key releases, headlined by Friday’s January nonfarm payroll report. Jobs are forecast rising 190k after the disappointing 156k December increase. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 4.7%, while earnings should rise 0.3%. Income and consumption for December (Monday) will be closely monitored as it a gauge of potential consumer spending. Q4 employment costs (Tuesday) are seen posting a 0.6% pace of growth the same as in Q3. January consumer confidence is projected at 114.0 (median 113.0) from 113.7 in December. Also due this week are manufacturing (Wednesday) and services (Friday) ISMs. Each is expected to be unchanged. January vehicle sales will be awaited, along with the ADP private employment survey (both Wednesday).

This week’s earnings news could also help support the bullish tone in equities. Positive news from industrials, financials, tech, and IT helped propel the Dow to 20k and the S&P to 2,295. About one-third of the S&P has reported so far, (68% have beaten estimates). Tuesday has Apple, Pfizer, Exxon, UPS, and Sprint. On Wednesday, there is Facebook. Thursday includes Amazon, Visa, ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell, Merck, GoPro, and Philip Morris.

Canada: November GDP (Tuesday) will be important for the global growth outlook. Also of note is the December industrial product price index (Tuesday). Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks at the University of Alberta School of Business, which will be followed by a press conference.

Europe: The frenzy of data releases this week is likely to add to Draghi’s problems as the recovery continues, while inflation is jumping higher and could even top the ECB’s 2% limit in Germany. The week starts with German inflation data (Monday), where we see headline HICP rising to 2.1% y/y with overall Eurozone number (Tuesday) at 1.6% y/y. A major difficulty is that the divergence across countries is rising again. Preliminary readings for Q4 GDP are expected to be relatively robust, with overall Eurozone GDP growth is also expected to have improved to 0.4% from Q3’s 0.3%. At the same time, confidence indicators for January have generally shown that the recovery continues, and the final manufacturing and services PMI readings are expected to be confirmed at 55.1 and 53.6 respectively. However, the decline in German jobless numbers is likely to have slowed at the start of the year. The data calendar also has German and Eurozone retail sales, as well as French consumer spending data for December, along with December Eurozone PPI. Events include ECBspeak from Draghi, Praet, Coeure, Nowotny and Mersch among others.

UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee conducts their February meeting this week (announcement Thursday), and publishes its latest quarterly Inflation Report (also Thursday). Expectations are widespread for the nine members to vote unanimously for unchanged policy, which would leave the repo rate at its historic low of 0.25%, and leave the prevailing QE total unchanged. The minutes and inflation report are expected to convey a continued wait-and-see stance. The data calendar is heighted by January Gfk consumer confidence (Tuesday), expected to dip to -8 from -7 December. There’s also the monthly lending data from the BoE (Tuesday), and the January PMI surveys, starting with Wednesday’s manufacturing report and concluding with Friday’s services report, with construction due Thursday.

China: New Year Holidays until Thursday however, the official CFLP PMI (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 51.1 from 51.4. The Caixin/Market index (Friday) is projected falling to 51.5 from 51.9.

Japan: The BoJ begins its 2-day meeting (Monday). No change in policy is expected. December retail sales (Monday) up 1.7% y/y overall. Tuesday’s calendar is full unemployment is expected unchanged at 3.1%, December personal income and PCE are on tap too,. December industrial production, housing starts and construction orders are also due. January manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is seen slipping to 52.3 from 52.4, and January auto sales are also due Wednesday. Thursday has January consumer confidence, which is forecast to dip to 43.0 from 43.1. The services PMI is due Friday. The minutes to the December BoJ meeting are also out on Friday.

Australia: Trade report (Thursday), expected to reveal an A$2.2 bln surplus. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen 3.0% firmer in December after the 7.0% gain in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 31st January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The selloff in equities continued in Asia overnight. Hong Kong and China remained closed for New Year celebrations, but elsewhere market remained weary of Trump related policy risks. The BoJ left policy unchanged as expected and there was no sign of tapering, despite an upward revision to the growth forecast, but this failed to limit the selloff in Nikkei and Topix as it underpinned a stronger currency. U.S. stock futures are also down, but FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains, despite a stronger Pound. The European data calendar is packed today, with the highlights including Eurozone inflation and GDP data, as well as German and Eurozone unemployment numbers and BoE lending data out of the U.K. There are also a number of ECB speakers, which are expected to play down the importance of the latest uptick in inflation.

Japan: Japanese household Spending came in unexpectedly at 0.3% lower than December’s 1.5%. Unemployment rate matches analysts’ predictions, since it came in at 3.1%, which consider being unchanged based on December’s rate. Furthermore, BOJ’s announced that monetary policy will be kept steady.

US data reports: The U.S. income report revealed a 0.3% December income rise after a small November boost that tracked assumptions, but a firm 0.5% consumption increase with a solid 0.3% “real” rise that modestly beat estimates. We saw a lean 0.2% December chain price rise that lifted the “real” consumption gain, while the savings rate fell to 5.4% from 5.6% (was 5.5%) in November. The firm close to Q4 consumption signaled slight upside risk to our 2.0% Q1 GDP estimate, which we left intact for now despite a small boost in our Q1 real consumption growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, after a 2.5% Q4 clip. The savings rate has considerable room to fall as we eventually unwind the lofty 6.1% Q1 average and 6.2% figure last March, as the rate is well above the 4.6% cycle-low from November of 2013. The Confidence spike since the U.S. elections may indeed signal a further savings rate drop into early-2017 that boosts consumption relative to income. U.S. pending home sales bounced 1.6% to 109.0 in December after falling 2.5% to 107.3 in November from October’s 110.0. But, compared to last December, pending sales are down 2.0% y/y versus the 1.4% y/y gain for November.

Germany: German inflation data led the way for an uptick in the Eurozone rate, to 1.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in December. Base effects from energy prices are the main driving factor and with even the German rate holding below the ECB’s 2% limit, the central bank is unlikely to change its course on the back of the numbers. Given that spreads are already widening, it will be crucial for Draghi and Co to send a very clear message to markets in coming months. German Dec retail sales came in, early today, much weaker than anticipated at -0.9% m/m. Expectations had been for a rise of 0.6% m/m as a rebound from the slump in the previous month and the data are more than disappointing, and at odds with very strong consumer confidence figures and the Bundesbank’s full year 2016 growth estimate, which suggested a strong last quarter also thanks to consumption. However, official retail sales cover only a part of overall consumption, so the gap between the official data and the consumption numbers in the GDP measures seem to be widening

Main Macro Events Today

Draghi’s speech – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in ECB and European Commission conference.

Eurozone GDP – Quarterly GDP growth is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, from 0.3% in the previous quarter and with a slight upside risk. Growth is broadening and confidence indicators suggest ongoing improvement in economic activity ahead, helped to a large extend by consumption and domestic demand. Risks remain tilted to the downside and come mainly from the political sphere inside and outside the Eurozone. For now, though the recovery remains on track.

US ECI & Consumer Confidence – Employment cost data expected to come in at 0.6%, matching the pace of growth that we have seen last time. The y/y pace of growth should tick up to 2.4% after holding at 2.3% for the past two quarters. January consumer confidence is expected to edge higher to 114.0 from 113.7 in December and 109.4 in November. Since the election various confidence measures have been topping highs set last winter during the oil price plunge.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets were mixed overnight. Japan managed to close with gains as markets started to focus on corporate earnings, while stocks in Hong Kong were under pressure as markets reopened, with U.S. policy concerns weighing on confidence. A weaker yen underpinned Japanese markets. Japan’s final manufacturing PMI was revised slightly down, but business sentiment was still at a 31-month high and Chinese PMIs held steady and point to ongoing expansion. In Europe, the calendar holds final Eurozone PMI readings as well as the U.K. CIPS manufacturing PMI. Germany auctions 5-year Bobls, but political events will remain at the forefront as U.S. President Trumps seems to promote a breakup of the EU.

Japan: Final Manufacturing PMI came in slightly down at 52.7 from 52.8 in December. As HIS Markit / Nikkei reported, Japanese manufacturing sector started 2017 with operating conditions improving at the sharpest rate in 3 years’ time. Both Production and new order rose in January, with the latter rising at the quickest rate since December 2015.

China: Chinese PMIs held pretty steady with 51.3 from 51.4 last period (expectation at 51.2) and point to ongoing expansion. Also, indicates that steadiness in Chinese economy will continue.

US data reports: revealed modest shortfalls across the Q4 ECI data and the January figures for consumer confidence and Chicago PMI, though the shortfalls did nothing to change the outlook for GDP growth of 2.0% in Q1 after a 1.9% Q4 rise. A 0.5% Q4 U.S. ECI gain undershot the 0.6% increases of the last three quarters, and we saw a restrained 0.5% wage and salary rise that defied the steeper hourly earnings uptrend, and we expect a firm 0.3% January hourly-earnings rise fueled by minimum wage hikes, alongside a 190k payroll rise. We saw a Chicago PMI drop to 50.3 from 53.9, which may reflect the 4% drop we expect in the January vehicle assembly rate given this index’s sensitivity to the auto sector. For consumer confidence, we saw a drop to a still-firm 111.8 from a 113.3 (was 113.7) December cycle-high, though confidence is still at its highest levels since the 9-11 terrorist attack in 2001. Inflation expectations bounced sharply in January after an odd December pullback, as gauged by both the Consumer confidence and Michigan sentiment surveys.

Canada: BoC’s Poloz continued to highlight uncertainty in his prepared remarks and his Q&A with the press. In his Q&A, he said “The way we think of it now is uncertainty has risen in the wake of the election and that is likely to feed through to investment thinking.” In his speech, he championed the importance of judgment in setting policy, noting that uncertainties such as geopolitical risk limit the effectiveness of economic models. On the currency, he said that some rise in the loonie is premature given excess capacity. The energy crisis (plunge in oil) has left Canada with persistent excess capacity. As for Trump, the impact of the new president is not knowing what to expect. No change for an extended period remains the base case scenario.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Markit PMI – UK Markit Manufacturing PMI expected to fall to 55.9 from 56.1 in December.

FOMC & Fed’s Rate – Monetary policy announcement coming today, while there will not be any press conference or release of estimates. No policy changes are expected at this point. Fed’s Interest Rate will also be decided later today.

US ISM – January ISM is out today and should reveal a 54.5 (median 55.0) headline that remain unchanged from the post-revision level set in December. Other measures of producer sentiment have mostly improved for the month and hence the ISM-adjusted average of all measures expected to climb to 55 from 53.2 in both December and November and 51.9 in October.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 2nd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south ( Nikkei closed own -1.22% at 18, 914) ongoing concerns about am emerging global trade war, and as the dollar weakened after the Fed failed to signal a rate hike as early as March, which some expected after yesterday’s data round. Oil prices fell back and investor confidence ebbed. Meanwhile the tense transatlantic mood and the apparent desire by the new U.S. administration stir discord in the Eurozone and the EU with the aim of breaking up of the union, should keep Eurozone spreads on a widening path. This backdrop, if it sustains, this will make it less likely that the ECB will end its very accommodative monetary policy, and keep the euro on the back foot. The UK parliament voted in favour of the government to trigger Article 50 and today the Brexit White Paper will be released.

Australian Trade – A Record Surplus: Imports rose to 1% from 0% last time and Exports fell to 5% from 8% which grew the trade balance much more than expected to record AUD 3,511Million from AUD2, 040 million last time and an expected figure of AUD2, 200million. The record trade balance was due mainly to significant increases in commodity prices and prevented Australia slipping into a “technical” recession for Q4 2016.

The FOMC Statement: FOMC said inflation “will rise to 2%” over the medium term, and that economic activity continued to expand, while the labor market continued to strengthen. There was no change in rates, as projected. The FED also gave itself maximum flexibility to act in March, or not, if it deems it necessary as the policy statement neither put the markets on notice, nor did it signal the all-clear. Many factors will go into the policy decision next month. While stronger data and rising inflation pressures may push some of the more hawkish Committee members to argue for a 25 bp hike, the current voters, including Evans, one of the most dovish participants, along with the centrist Kashkari would likely prefer to delay, especially if political uncertainties remain high and if fiscal stimulus looks to be farther out the timeline. Additionally, the markets could be shaky ahead of Brexit, as the UK moves closer to triggering that event, and the March 15 general elections in the Netherlands. With this backdrop, Fedspeak should be closely monitored. USD sagged following the announcement and overnight Cable touched 1.2680, the Euro perked to 1.0795 and Japanese yen traded down to 112.46. The US Dollar index is currently trading significantly under 100 at 99.43.

US data: U.S. ADP reported private payrolls surged 246k in January after a 151k gain in December (revised from 153k). The service sector climbed 201k from 147k previously (revised from 169k), while employment in the goods producing sector rose 46k from December’s 4k gain. The U.S. ISM surge to a 2-year high of 56.0 from prior highs of 54.5 in December and 53.5 in November lifted January nonfarm payroll estimates to 200k from 190k, as the index continues to climb steeply from the 47.9 expansion-low in December of 2015. The jobs component surged to a 29-month high of 56.1 from an 18-month high of 52.8 in December.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Super Thursday – Today the BOE announce it interest rate decision, (very likely to remain unchanged) along with its asset purchase facility (again likely to be unchanged) the minutes and votes from their last meeting and also the Quarterly Inflation report (the most interesting data) The minutes and inflation report are expected to convey a continued wait-and-see stance, repeating that policy could go in either direction this year. Finally governor Carney and members of the MPC hold a press conference regarding the Inflation report (likely to be by far the most interesting).

ECB President Draghi Speech – The speech in Slovenia may be more interesting and market moving than his speech on Monday but markets seem to be in a Trump On / Trump Off mood rather than Risk On / Risk Off.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down overnight. The Nikkei managed to close with a marginal gain as the Yen declined, but elsewhere markets remained in a sombre mode, after mixed closes in the U.S. and Europe yesterday. Chinese stocks fell on the first trading day of the week. The Caixin manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected, even though it remained in expansion territory, and the central bank raised interest rates in open market operations. Meanwhile international markets continue to look nervously to the U.S. and Trump’s new policies. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south. European yields came off yesterday and if the cautious mood prevails should remain underpinned going into the weekend. European spreads mostly narrowed yesterday, but France underperformed amid political concerns as the presidential elections draw nearer and Le Pen gains in the polls. The European calendar has final services PMI readings out of the Eurozone, as well as the U.K. CIPS services PMI.

China: China’s central bank sends tightening signal by lifting short term rtes. The first trading day after the long New Year holiday started with a bank in China as the bank lifted rates on open market operation repos by 10 basis points, effective today. Another signal that authorities are focusing on trying to control a real estate bubble, but some see it also as a way to try and halt the depreciation of the yuan, even if the rate rise focuses on reverse repos. According to Reuters two sources said authorities also raised the lending rates on its standing lending facility (SFL) short term loans.

UK: Sterling has followed Gilt yields lower in the wake of the BoE policy announcement and Inflation Report, which left the repo rate and QE settings unchanged, and detailed upgraded growth forecasts, as had been widely anticipated. The BoE retained its neutral policy bias, saying that the next move could be “in either direction”. The growth forecast has been lifted compared to the November inflation report, but the bank suggested that the equilibrium unemployment rate has dropped, which means the BoE can afford to accept a lower rate of unemployment without having to tighten policy. So, despite the better growth outlook, the bank remains firmly in neutral mode, leaving the door open to both further easing, or more tightening, depending how developments unfold. Cable had lifted from its lows, benefiting from the generally soft path of the dollar, though at 1.2575 bid presently remains a net 0.7% lower yesterday. The pound had remained heavier relative to the euro and yen, and although also off from earlier lows is still down by an average 1.1% versus the G3 currencies. A remark from BoE governor Carney during the BoE MPC’s post-meeting press conference, that “we think the economy can run with a lower rate of unemployment without us having to adjust policy” has been feeding a sterling-bearish narrative. Next domestic focus will be today’s December services PMI report, expected to dip to a 55.8 reading after 56.2 in December.

US: The dollar shrugged off the better jobless claims and productivity outcomes, leaving EUR-USD static just over 1.0800, and USD-JPY idling near 112.25. Yields were little changed, while equity futures remained moderately underwater. The 14k U.S. initial claims drop to 246k in the last week of January after climbing 23k to 260k the week before (revised from 259k). Claims are entering February on a tight trajectory following a 2-month period of holiday volatility that ended with last week’s report. Claims are averaging just 248k in January, versus higher prior averages of 258k in December. U.S. productivity posted a preliminary 1.3% growth rate in Q4, versus 3.5% in Q3. Furthermore, a 170K January nonfarm payroll rise expected in today’s report.

Main Macro Events Today

Us Non-Manufacturing ISM – January ISM-NMI is out today to close out the January producer sentiment releases and it is expected to tick down to 57 from 57.2 in December. Most measures of producer sentiment managed to post gains in January and the ISM-adjusted average of all measure looks poised to finish at 54 for the month, up from 53 in December and November.

US Employment – It is expected to post a 200k headline, up from 156k in December and about matching the 204k headline in November. The unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.7% from November. The balance of risk is firmly to the upside as claims, consumer confidence and producer sentiment have all continued to strengthen in January.

EU Markit PMI – Expected to be unchanged since last time i.e. 53.6.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 6th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2017.

FX News Today

February is starting off on an optimistic front after a solid beat from the January jobs report, and generally good news from the ISMs. Data calendars are pretty light around the world, though there will be a number of central bank meetings in Asia. Trade reports will highlight globally, especially from Germany, which has caught the ire of President Trump. The UK will also continue to wrestle with its Brexit dilemma, with the focus on the freshly published white paper on its negotiating stance before Article 50 is invoked next month.

United States: The economic calendar is a relatively lean one this week, with GDP and payrolls in the rear-view mirror now. Monday is empty, while the trade deficit is forecast to narrow to -$45 bln (Tuesday). JOLTS job openings and consumer credit are also due (Tuesday), with credit seen expanding by $20 bln in December from $24.5 bln in November. The MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventories are the only offerings (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims may rise 249K from 247K for the week ended February 2 (Thursday), while wholesale sales may rise 0.7% in December and inventories increase 1.0%. The Spartan week rounds out with import prices and export prices forecast unchanged in January (Friday), while preliminary Michigan sentiment is expected at 97.9 vs 98.5 last time. The January’s Treasury budget will also come out on Friday. The earnings season is coming to an end, but there are still a few key announcements due. So far 66.4% of the 274 S&P500 companies that have reported have revealed positive earnings news, while 20.8% have given negative surprises, with 12.8% in line.

Canada: The Canadian calendar is one of the few with a hearty spread of economic data this week after the paltry offerings last week. The employment report (Friday) is the main course, with total jobs projected to rise 5.0k in January after the 46.1k surge in December. The trade report (Tuesday) is expected to show a further expansion in the surplus to $1.2 bln in December following the surprise shift to a $0.5 bln surplus in November. Crude oil prices were sharply higher in December, which should provide a hefty boost to export values. The usual pairing of building permits (Tuesday) and housing starts (Wednesday) is expected to show moderation in Canada’s housing sector as Federal government measures impact. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is expected to fall to 58.3 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.8 in December. A 0.1% increase in the new housing price index (Thursday) is anticipated following the 0.2% gain in November.

Europe: The data calendar dries up this week and with the central bank meetings out of the way, the markets will have plenty of time to focus on the political risks that seem to be hitting the Eurozone from the inside and the outside. The French presidential election (first round April 23) remains a factor for markets, and it will be key to see how the Eurozone and the EU will react to the fact that the number of those who would love to see the unions fail is rising. Against that background and with the U.S. administration criticizing the weak EUR, which in turn is adding to Germany’s push for QE tapering, Eurozone spreads are likely to remain volatile and to continue to widen. Ironically that in turn puts Draghi in a difficult position and fears of a revival of the debt crisis will mean the ECB president will continue to send dovish signals at his comments at the European Parliament hearing next week.

The highlight of the data calendar is German manufacturing orders today (Monday), which came out at 5.2% from the -2.5% m/m decline in November. The sharp correction in orders in November, will likely keep a lid on December industrial production numbers (Tuesday) which are expected to rise to 0.2% m/m, following the 0.4% m/m in November. German December trade data (Thursday) may attract more attention than usual, not because of the monthly figure, but because it will likely show that Germany is the world’s leading exporters, which at the current juncture will only add to the arguments of German critics, especially Mr. Trump. Interestingly though, GDP numbers for this year already indicated that net exports detracted from overall growth and that the German recovery has been mainly underpinned by domestic demand and consumption. Additionally, the event calendar has ECBspeak from Draghi, Mersch, Weidmann and others and a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar is fairly quiet this week, highlighted by industrial production and trade figures for December (Friday). The January BRC retail sales report is also up (Tuesday), along with the RICS house price balance for the same month (Thursday). The narrower manufacturing production gauge is expected to expand by 0.3% m/m from 1.3% last time. Data in-line with expectations should not affect sterling markets. Brexit focus will be on the government’s freshly published white paper on its negotiating stance before Article 50 is invoked. The paper will be subject to parliamentary approval, and is widely expected to pass without too much trouble. The government has pledged that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March.

China: The January services PMI missed expectations since came out at 53.1 from forecast 53.6, while the January trade surplus is expected to balloon to $49.8 bln from 40.8 bln. January loan growth and new yuan loans are due Friday.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off with the December current account (Wednesday), where the surplus is expected to narrow to JPY 1,100 bln from 1,415,5 bln. January bank loan data are also due. December machine orders (Thursday) should rise 3.2% m/m from the prior 5.1% decline. January PPI (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% y/y from -1.2% in December, while the December tertiary industry index is also due Friday.

Australia: The calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday) where we expect the rate setting to hold at 1.50%. RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the A50 Australian Economic Forum Dinner (Thursday). The RBA publishes the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. Economic data features. December housing investment (Friday) is expected to rise to 1.0% relative to November after the 0.9% m/m gain in November.

New Zealand: This week’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting (Wednesday), expected to result in no change to the 1.75% rate setting. At the last meeting, way back in early November, the RBNZ cut the OCR to 1.75% from 2.00%, as inflation continued to run below the target range. Governor Wheeler kept an easing bias in place at the time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets fluctuated after weaker sessions in the U.S. and Europe yesterday. Especially Eurozone markets were under pressure on Monday and spreads widened sharply, despite Draghi’s confirmation that the central bank will continue with its QE schedule and maintains an easing bias. This was followed up by Coeure telling La Parisien that the EUR is at an appropriate level. However, with the ECB continuing to keep the EUR down with a very expansionary policy the political risks facing the Eurozone externally and internally are rising and markets are reaction nervously to the rise of anti-EMU, far right parties in the polls. Especially France is in focus and the spread over the German benchmark has risen sharply in recent weeks. Political risks continue to overshadow the data calendar. Already released U.K. BRC retail sales for January unexpectedly dropped. German production numbers are due at the start of the session, followed by French trade data and U.K. house price numbers from Halifax later in the day.

ECB’s Coeure: EUR is appropriate level for the economy. The Executive Board member said in an interview with La Parisien that “since its last peak in 2011, euro has depreciated by almost 30% against the dollar”, adding that the single currency is “now at a level that is appropriate for the economic situation in Europe”. Coeure told said the “single currency has adjusted as a consequence” of necessary ECB policies designed to support the economy. Asked about Le Pen’s push for France to leave the EU Coeure said this is not what the French want as “when asked if they think the EUR is a good thing, the answer is an unambiguous yes”. He also played down arguments that the 3% debt limit in the Maastricht Treaty is a straightjacket, as “France has not respected the criterion once since 2007”. Meanwhile, ECB chief Draghi confirms easing bias and QE schedule at his hearing before the European Parliament, saying that the ECB policy is a key contributor to the Eurozone’s economic improvement and that financing conditions have to remain accommodative. He confirmed the QE scheduled of EUR 60 bln worth of asset purchases from April to December. The ECB president once again played down the importance of the recent uptick in headline inflation. Draghi repeated that the ECB will look through transient price increases and that the risks to the economic outlook remain tilted to the downside, and relate mainly to global factors.

Fedspeak: Philly Fed’s Harker did not discuss monetary policy in his prepared remarks on “Regulation is Key to Safeguarding Fintech, Consumers.” He did say it’s still an open question, who should supervise fintech lenders. We’ll see if he says anything policy related in Q&A. March should be considered on the table in terms of possible rate action, he told reporters in answering questions. Indeed, never take any meeting off the table, he warned, though he also advised he hasn’t made up his mind yet. It will depend on the evolution of the economy and fiscal policy. He still supports the FOMC’s three, quarter-point tightening trajectory and wants to make sure the Fed doesn’t fall behind the curve. Harker is on the hawkish side of the spectrum and is a voter this year.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at 1.50%, matching widespread expectations. They appear to be comfortable, for now, with inflation that “remains quite low.” Inflation is expected to “remain low for some time.” Governor Lowe said “Headline inflation is expected to pick up over the course of 2017 to be above 2 per cent, with the rise in underlying inflation expected to be a bit more gradual.” He said that the board “judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.” They appear content to stay on the sidelines and let the easing from 2016 percolate through the economy.

Main Macro Events Today

US Trade, JOLTS & Consumer Credit – The trade report, expected to reveal to narrow to -$45 bln in December from the -$45.2 bln in November. JOLTS job openings and consumer credit are also coming out today, with credit seen expanding by $20 bln in December from $24.5 bln in November.

CAD Trade Balance – The trade report, expected to reveal an expansion in the surplus to C$1.2 bln in December from the C$0.5 bln in November.

CAD Exports, Imports & Ivey PMI – Crude oil prices were sharply higher in December, which should provide a hefty boost to export values. Exports are seen rising 2.0% m/m in December after the 4.3% surge in November. Imports are projected to increase 0.5% in December after the 0.7% gain. Building permits and the Ivey PMI are also due out today, but will take a back-seat to the trade report.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with property developers and automakers leading the way in China, but gains in Japan trimmed later in the session by a stronger Yen and the ongoing slump in oil prices. The front end Nymex future is currently trading at USD 51.76 per barrel, after data showing a rise i U.S. stockpiles, fuelling concerns that rising supply from the U.S. will offset cuts by OPEC. U.K. futures are moving higher, U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed. In Europe only DAX and FTSE 100 managed to close with gains on Tuesday, while other markets were in the red. Yields declined as bond futures advanced and the French 10-year for once managed to outperform the German equivalent, but the Eurozone remains in the shadow of election jitters and mounting political risks inside and outside the union. The local data calendar today is pretty empty and with only business confidence data from the Bank of France on the agenda, political risks will remain a focal point.

US: U.S. December trade deficit narrowed 3.2% to -$44.3 bln after rising 7.1% to -$45.7 bln in November. Imports rose 1.5% versus the 1.2% gain previously, while exports were up 2.7% versus -0.2% in November. The “real” goods trade balance was -$62.3 bln compared to -$63.9 bln as imports rose 1.5% while exports increased 3.6%. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings dipped 4k to 5,501k in December after rising 54k to 5,505k in November (revised from 5,522k). Also, the rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.7%. December hirings rose 40k to 5,252k following November’s 52k increase to 5,212k. The rate was flat at 3.6%. Quitters dropped 98k to 2,979k in December after rebounding 54k to 3,077k in November. The rate fell to 2.0% from 2.1%. The JOLTS report an important indicator for Fed Chair Yellen, particularly the quit rate, so the data will be slightly disappointing, but not really market moving.

Canada: GoC were ultimately little changed to firmer, with the long end of the yield curve outperforming. Equities managed to maintain a small gain late into the session, despite a drag from energy sector shares amid a tumble in crude oil prices. The loonie saw modest improvement against the U.S. dollar, despite the oil price decline and the not exactly surprising news that Canada ran a second consecutive trade surplus in December. Canada’s trade surplus narrowed to C$0.9 bln in December, which was better than expected and modestly below projection of C$1.2 bln. The November surplus was revised higher to C$1.0 bln from the original C$0.5 bln, leaving a narrowing in December despite what was a firm figure. Exports improved 0.8% m/m in December after a revised 5.1% surge in November (was +4.3%), driven by higher prices on energy products. Imports grew 1.0% on the heels of a revised 0.2% dip in November (was +0.7%), with December’s gain mostly due to an increase in aircraft and industrial machinery.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Kashkari said yesterday, it’s better the Fed errs on the accommodative side than on being more restrictive, in an essay he wrote to explain his vote on February 1. He noted that he “avoids making predictions about when our next rate change will be and how many changes I expect in a given year, in order to minimize confusion and because the Fed doesn’t know for sure how the economy will evolve, where he also acknowledged the Fed has often been wrong. He also added that there are too many uncertainties, including the fiscal policy outlook. Inflation is expected to remain well anchored, with the strong dollar likely to restrain price pressures. Wages aren’t showing much inflation either. In conclusion, he said from a risk management standpoint, “we have stronger tools to deal with high inflation than low inflation.” Hence, he voted to keep rates steady.

Main Macro Events Today

CA Housing Stats – Canada’s Housing starts are expected to slow to a 200.0k unit pace in January from the 207.0k rate in December. Permits grew at a 233k to 235k pace over the three months spanning October, November and December.

NBNZ Rate – Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting, expected to result in no change to the 1.75% rate setting.

NZ MPS & Conference – RBNZ will publish today the Monetary Policy statement. Afterwards a press conference will also be held by Reserve Bank Governor regarding monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stock markets headed south despite a weaker Yen, as investors held back ahead of tomorrow’s meeting between Trump and Abe. ASX, Hang Seng and Chinese bourses meanwhile moved higher after U.S. equities managed to claw back losses and close with gains on Wednesday. In Europe markets also came up from lows in late trade and markets closed narrowly mixed, with FTSE 100 and Italian MIB outperforming. FTSE 100 futures are posting marginal gains at the moment and U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, as investors await further guidance on U.S. policies. Yields continued to head south in Asia but after Bund and Gilt futures rallied yesterday and Eurozone spreads narrowed markedly as peripherals outperformed it remains to be seen how far down yields can go. Already released the U.K. RICS house price balance improved slightly. Still to come Germany releases December trade data, Switzerland has unemployment numbers and Norway Q4 GDP.

New Zealand: RBNZ held rates at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. The statement by Governor Wheeler was cautiously upbeat as he said “Growth in New Zealand has increased as expected…” and “The outlook remains positive…” As for inflation, it has returned to the target band as past oil prices declines fall-out of the annual calculation. They remain of the view that inflation will gradually return to the midpoint of the target band. On the currency, he said that “A decline in the exchange rate is needed.” But while the growth and inflation outlook may be looking somewhat better, Wheeler ended his statement with “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

US: WTI crude has rallied to session highs following the EIA inventory report which revealed a large 13.8 mln bbl increase in crude stocks. The contract has topped at $52.65 after bottoming at $51.51 after the data. The market had sold off on the API report on Tuesday, and with today’s EIA report’s corroborating, it appeared short covering was the driver behind the fairly sharp rally. In addition, gasoline and distillate stocks came in lower than expected, a bullish development.

Canada: Yields have extended declines amid risk off trades, with the firm January housing starts report overlooked in favour of global developments, since they have been improved slightly to a 207.4k rate in January from a revised 206.3k clip in December (was 207.0k). Also, the government’s measures to temper the housing market are projected to gradually slow sales and construction. Hence, a firm starts report to begin the year is not likely to worry the BoC. The 10-year GoC has fallen to a session low 1.652%, leaving a 3.5 bp drop from Tuesday’s close. The 2-year is at 0.724%, also a session low, which is good for a 1 bp decline relative to yesterday’s close. Equities have turned (slightly) negative, according to the S&P/TSX 60 index futures after a nearly unchanged perch earlier.

Germany reported: a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.4 bln in December, down from EUR 21.8 bln in the previous month, as exports slumped 3.3% m/m, after a very strong November rise of 3.9% m/m, while imports were unchanged in December. after rising 3.5% m/m in November. Unadjusted data show a total trade surplus of EUR 252.9 bln in 2016, up from EUR 244.3 bln in 2014, as imports rose 1.2% and imports 0.6%. Imports as well as exports stood at record highs, but this is nominal data and impacted by exchange rate and oil price developments and official estimates for 2016 GDP reported a negative contribution from net exports to overall growth last year, which highlights the impact of price movements, but also that for once it wasn’t actually export strength that underpinned the recovery last year.

Main Macro Events Today

US Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of February 4 is out today and should reveal a slight headline increase to 250k from 246k last week and 260k the week prior to that. Claims have been striking a tight path lately and we expect a February average of 250k, up slightly from 248k in January but down from 258k in December.

Canada NHPI – A 0.1% increase in the new housing price index is anticipated following the 0.2% gain in November. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks today at Western University, London, Ontario.

BOE Gov. Carney – BOE Governor Carney speaks at the Bank of England Reception in London.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 10th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally that was sparked by President Trump’s reference to “something” on the tax cut front in the next 2-3 weeks that would be “phenomenal”, continued in Asia overnight. The Nikkei closed with a more than 2% gain as a lower Yen gave an additional boost, especially to automakers. Markets have also welcomed a perceived softening of Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs on imports from China. The Abe-Trump meeting remains in focus today. U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher after Trump’s remarks also underpinned closing gains yesterday. Today’s data calendar focuses on the December round of production numbers from the U.K., France and Italy, too backward looking to really change the outlook, leaving the focus on the political arena. Meanwhile the BoE announced that hawk Kristin Forbes, who recently said the BoE may have to hike soon, will leave the MPC after a single term on June 30.

US: Trump signed 3 more executive orders aimed at crime including measures to crack down on transnational crime and drug cartels, reduce crime domestically and prevent violence against law enforcement. This coincided with Sessions being sworn in as Attorney General. The dollar is still higher, however, after Trump’s reference to tax cut announcements in 2-3 weeks, which the markets have been braying for. Additionally, U.S. reports revealed robust wholesale trade and initial claims reports alongside a spike in the weekly Bloomberg consumer comfort index to a new cycle-high that lifted prospects for GDP and payrolls. For wholesale trade, a 2.6% December sales surge that was only partly price-related, and the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio plunged to 1.29 after a prior recession-sized climb from 1.20 in mid-2014 to a 1.37 expansion-high in January of 2016. For claims, a 12k drop to 234k in the first week of February left a super-tight path over the three weeks since the end of holiday volatility, with a reading that challenges the 43-year low of 233k in the Veteran’s Day week.

FX Update: USDJPY led the broader dollar rally sparked by Trump’s hint yesterday that “something” on the tax cut front in the next 2-3 weeks that would be “phenomenal,” which was followed-up by an unexpected phone all between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi, where Trump said that he would respect the “One China” policy, helping ease tensions. This sparked a risk-on trade and a dollar rally, and USDJPY extended in Tokyo to a nine-day peak of 113.80, which is over two big figures up on Tuesday’s 10-week low at 111.59. Japanese stocks, liking the weaker yen and risk-on vibe, surged; the Nikkei 225 closing with a 2.6% gain. Focus will now turn to the meeting between Trump and Abe, later today, which comes little more than a week after Trump accused Japan, along with China, of currency manipulation. In theory, the risk of fresh vitriol from Trump on exchange rates presents downside risk to USDJPY, though his diplomatic tone with China’s Xi may well be repeated with Abe. Elsewhere, EURUSD consolidated in Asia after tumbling back under 1.0700.

Canada: New housing price index improved 0.1% m/m in December after the 0.2% gain in November. By region, gains in Ontario and Alberta led the way higher for the total index. The new housing price index grew at a 3.0% y/y pace in December, matching the 3.0% rate in November and October. The index saw a cycle low 1.1% y/y growth rate in April of 2015, and has tracked higher since as sales and prices have gained momentum. Moreover, the 3.0% growth rates in the final three months of last year were the strongest annual gains since June of 2010’s 3.3% rise. The government housing measures implemented late last year will eventually temper sales and construction, but the impact should be gradual.

Main Macro Events Today

GBP Man. Production & NIESR GDP Estimate – December round of production numbers from the U.K are coming out, with manufacturing production for December to fall by 1% (i.e. forecast at 0.3%) after the 1.3% in November. Industrial production on the other hand expected to be 3.2% y/y, and 0.2% m/m.

Canada Employment Rates – Net Change in Employment, Participation rate and unemployment rate will be out today. Employment gains for January expected to be out today, after the 53.7k surge in December. Canada posted employment gains from August to October of last year, and saw a decline in November.

US Trade price data & Budget Statement – January’s import prices expected to be up 0.1%, with export prices unchanged. This compares to December figures which had import prices up 0.4% and import prices up 0.3% for the month. Oil prices continue to climb which should lend support to the headline however the pace of gains slowed in January. The Monthly Budget statement by FMS is also out today.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 13th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2017.

FX News Today

“All politics is local,” quipped Tip O’Neill. But, as seen in recent election results, politics have become a very global affair and have underscored President Obama’s line, “elections have consequences.” Indeed, politics have dominated the landscape since the June 24 Brexit surprise and then the November 8 Trump shocker. So far, the ramifications have been a boon for investors as expectations for a more business friendly environment have manifest in hefty equity gains. While politics will remain a major risk ahead, especially with Brexit negotiations on the immediate horizon, and upcoming elections in the Netherlands (March 15), France (April 23) and Germany (September 24), monetary policy will be at the forefront this week as Fed Chair Yellen presents her Monetary Policy Report (Tuesday).

United States: Fed Chair Yellen should headline this week when she goes the Senate Banking Committee (Tuesday), after which she’ll go to the House Financial Services Committee (Wednesday). Key for the markets will be her outlook on the normalization path, including the balance sheet. The data calendar will be of importance too, led by January CPI and retail sales, which will have longer run implications for Fed policy. Production and housing figures also awaited (all due Wednesday). Price pressures have been on the rise as oil prices have stabilized higher, though the trajectory is still rather shallow, thanks in part to the firmer dollar. Remember too that the February 1 FOMC statement even dropped its mention of transitory effects capping inflation. CPI is forecast rising 0.4%, thanks to higher energy costs, with the core rate up 0.2%. Retail sales are expected to inch up 0.1% in January versus December’s 0.6% jump. February manufacturing reports also are due this week. The Empire State manufacturing index (Wednesday) is projected rising 2.5 points back to 9.0 after slipping 1.5 points to 6.5 in January. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) should tumble to 15.0 after increasing 3.9 points to 23.6 in January, which was the strongest since December 2014. January housing starts (Thursday) should hold steady at the 1.226 mln pace, after rebounding 11.3% to that rate in December. The February NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey is also on tap (Thursday).

Canada: The Canadian calendar has manufacturing and housing data feature on this week’s docket. The January Teranet/National Housing Price Index is due Tuesday. January existing home sales (Wednesday) are projected to expand 3.0% y/y after the 5.0% y/y drop in December. The international securities transactions report for December is due Friday. The Bank of Canada is silent this week. Prime Minister Trudeau meets President Trump in Washington D.C on Monday.

Europe: As pressure on the EU and Eurozone increases and political risks from the inside and outside mount it seems officials are trying to close ranks, at least on the monetary front. ECB’s Mersch signaled that the central bank may drop the reference to the possibility of another rate cut, while Germany is scaling back its ambitions to get the G20 to push for less accommodative policies. Both moves may reflect pragmatic decisions in the light of strong data and a changed global political landscape, but they also bring Draghi and Merkel closer together. At least current leaders seem eager to try and convince the world that while differences of opinion remain, they will fight hard to keep Europe’s unions together beyond what is promising to be a challenging year.

The raft of data releases this week will mainly be backward looking and confirm the picture of an ongoing recovery and rising inflation. The most interesting number may be German ZEW investor confidence for February, which will show how unsettled investors are by the mounting political risks and the growing tensions between the new U.S. administration. The data is releases on Tuesday, which will include German and Eurozone Q4 GDP numbers as well as final German inflation data for January. Italian GDP meanwhile continues to trail behind and expected to be unchanged. This combination should see overall Eurozone Q4 GDP confirmed 0.5% q/q, with domestic demand the main driving factor as the ECB continues to lend a helping hand. The full calendar also includes Eurozone production, trade and current account data for December, but with the focus on the Q4 GDP numbers these are unlikely to move markets or change the outlook. There is also ECBspeak from Nowotny and Coeure, which will be scrutinized for a change in tone.

UK: The UK calendar is highlighted by January inflation data (Tuesday), where a rise in the headline rate to 1.9% y/y is expected, after 1.7% y/y in December. In-line data would be consistent with BoE projections, based on y/y gains in energy prices and the significant y/y decline in sterling. The central bank reaffirmed in the February edition its quarterly Inflation Report that it expects CPI to top out at 2.8% y/y in the first half of 2018. Hawkish-leaning BoE MPC member Forbes subsequently warned that the inflation risks might be higher than the BoE’s projections suggest, although she also said that growth risks might quickly resurface when EU exit negotiations start next month. The monthly labor market report is also due (Wednesday), covering November and January. The headline claimant count is expected to rise by 1.1k in December after falling 10.1k in November. The official November ILO unemployment rate is expected to continue at the cycle low of 4.8%. Average household income in the three months to November is expected at 2.8% y/y growth, unchanged from the rate seen in the prior month. Official retail sales data for January is also up on Friday.

China: China’s docket starts with January loan growth and new yuan loan reports (tentatively Monday) with the former seen up 13.6% y/y from 13.5% y/y, and the latter expected up CNY 2,000 bln from 1,040 bln. January CPI (Tuesday) is expected to heat up to 2.4% y/y from 2.1% y/y, while PPI is seen accelerating to 6.0% y/y from 5.5% y/y in December

Japan: The preliminary Q4 GDP (Monday) is expected at 1.0% y/y, slowing slightly from the 1.3% Q3 outcome. Revised December industrial production (Tuesday) is on tap too. It slipped to a 3.0% y/y pace after bouncing 4.6% y/y in November.

Australia: The calendar has employment (Friday), expected to show a 15.0k gain in January after the 13.5k rise in December. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.8% in January, matching the December reading. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Head of Economic Analysis Department Alexandra Heath speaks and participates in a panel at the Australian Business Economists (ABE) Forecasting Conference, Sydney (Tuesday). Assistant Governor (Economic) Luci Ellis participates in a panel at the 2017 Australasian Housing Researchers Conference, Melbourne (Wednesday).

New Zealand: This week’s calendar has retail sales (Friday), expected to improve 1.1% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.9% increase in Q3. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. The bank held the OCR steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 14th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally run out of steam in Asia overnight and the Nikkei closed with a 1.13% loss, as markets turn cautious ahead of Yellen’s testimony to lawmakers. A strong Yen added to pressure on Japanese bourses, with other Asian indices only slightly in the red. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, however, and while the overall sentiment still seems cautiously optimistic markets seem to be waiting for a clearer trigger to extend gains. Core European yields moved higher and yield curves steepened yesterday, while peripheral long yields declined and the spread over the German benchmark narrowed, at least in the 10-year area. The picture was very different for 2-year yields, which climbed in France, Italy and Spain, where yield curves flattened as the short end underperformed and spreads widened. Today’s very busy calendar starts with German GDP and inflation data at the start of the session, followed by GDP numbers from Italy, Portugal and the Eurozone, as well as inflation data from Switzerland and the U.K.

FX Update: The dollar is trading at moderately softer levels, despite seeing a flurry of buying just ahead of the London interbank open. USDJPY has retreated to the lower portion of the 113s amid a generally firmer yen today, which has recouped losses sub-113.50 levels as the risk-on vibe of yesterday was replaced by a risk-off one today. The sudden resignation of Trump’s national security advisor Flynn, and a nosedive in Toshiba shares after the conglomerate delayed its earning announcement, soured investor risk appetite. Markets are also being cautious ahead of Fed Yellen’s testimony before the Senate today. Most Asian stock indicies gave up intraday gains and declined into the red, while the Nikkei closed 1.1% for the worse. USDJPY breached both yesterday’s low and its 20-day moving average. Last Friday’s low at 112.88 provides a near-term target. EURUSD recovered above 1.0600 from 1.0591 low, while the dollar has posted an eight-day low versus the Canadian dollar, a two-day low against the Australian dollar, and has seen three-day lows versus sterling.

Germany: The January HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.7% y/y in December. The breakdown confirmed that the rise was to a large extent driven by energy prices. Prices for heating oil rose 42.5% y/y, petrol prices were up 12.8% y/y and excluding mineral oil products, German inflation would have been just 1.3% y/y. So while the German headline HICP rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability as close to, but below 2%, the numbers back Draghi’s argument that the uptick is due to temporary base effects. And with much of Draghi’s QE program an insurance policy against stability risks, the data won’t stop asset purchases, but the ECB’s critics in Germany will also feel justified as growth is robust.

US: U.S. equities continue to migrate higher into record territory as faith-based algos pile on their buy orders on the shoulders of last week’s “big league” tax cut promises. The WTI crude has turned turtle and eased back below $53 bbl as the ramp up in domestic shale production nips at the heels of 90% compliance with OPEC supply cuts.US markets closed at record highs with Apple being the main driver, i.e. closed at 133.29 which was a rise of 0.89%.

Canada: Trudeau’s opening remarks were constructive in his joint presser with Trump. The PM said much of Canada’s economy depends on U.S. integration, and that the U.S. and Canada will always be essential partners. The free flow of goods and services must be allowed, he said. In a joint statement, the two leaders said “As the process continues for the Keystone XL pipeline, we remain committed to moving forward on energy infrastructure projects that will create jobs while respecting the environment.” Border security is a “top priority.” Equities have moved slightly higher, adding to modest gains. GoC yields remain elevated, with 2 to 3 bp gains across the yield curve relative to Friday’s closing levels. More broadly, risk-on conditions remain supportive of equities and yields.

Main Macro Events Today

German ZEW – German investor confidence for February will be even more interesting than usual as it should give an indication about the impact of mounting political risks and the growing tensions between the new U.S. administration on sentiment. Expectations are to 15.1 from 16.6 last time.

UK PPI & CPI – Inflation data expected to rise in the headline rate to 1.9% y/y after 1.6% y/y in December. That would bring CPI to within 0.1% of the BoE’s target. The central bank reaffirmed in the February edition its quarterly Inflation Report that it expects CPI to top out at 2.8% y/y in the first half of 2018.

US Core PPI – January PPI is out today and should reveal a 0.3% headline with a 0.2% increase for the core. This compares to December figures which had the headline at 0.3% and the core at 0.2% as well. Oil prices have been rebounding this winter but the pace if improvement tapered off in January.

Fed’s Report and Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen goes to Capitol Hill to give her twice-yearly Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.