Hotforex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 2nd August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing slight gains, but the Nikkei closed down -1.47% and Australia’s ASX also down, despite a rate cut from the RBA, which lowered the cash rate by 25 bp to 1.50%. Negative leads then for European stock markets which already closed in the red yesterday, which should give Bund futures some chance to recover some of yesterday’s losses. The European calendar is relatively quiet today, with only the U.K. construction PMI, the Swiss manufacturing PMI and Eurozone PPI numbers.

RBA Cuts rates by 25bp to a record low 1.50%: As expected and already largely priced in by the markets, AUDUSD fell but then immediately recovered, currently trading at 0.7548. “Moderate” repeated a lot in the statement, concerning Chinese growth, local domestic growth including housing and labour market. Key problem remains stubbornly low inflation and is expected to “remain so for some time”. The RBA report their quarterly forecast update on Friday.

Japan: Consumer confidence has slipped again, from 42.0 to 41.3 for July. Finance Minister Aso and BOJ Governor Kuroda will meet later today to “confirm cooperation over policy”. Also due today is PM Abe fiscal stimulus announcement. USDJPY 102.14 in anticipation.

US Market Reports: Yesterday they revealed only a small July ISM drop to a still-firm 52.6 from a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, and it’s now likely that the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys will bounce to 52 in July from 50 in both May and June, as this aggregate reclaims the 52 eight-month high in March. Yet, we also saw a surprisingly weak round of Q2 construction spending figures that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth estimate to 2.6% from 2.8%, after a likely downward bump in Q2 growth to just 1.1% from 1.2%. We saw June construction drops in every major component except home improvement, after widespread downward bumps in both April and May.

Energy Action: WTI crude gapped to $40.20 lows after breaking Friday’s three-plus month base of $40.57. The contract now stands at levels last seen on April 20, when the printed base was $39.85. Fresh selling can be expected under there, with stop loss orders noted. Technically the key 50 and 200 DMA have been broken.

Main Macro Events Today

US Personal Income – June personal income data is out today and should reveal a 0.3% (median 0.3%) headline with consumption up 0.3% (median 0.3%) as well. This follows respective May figures which had income up 0.2% on the month with consumption up 0.4%. Vehicle sales plunged in June but the employment report and aggregate income measure were both stronger, lending some upside risk to the release.

UK Construction PMI – More poor data expected a fall to 44.2 from 46.0 last time is anticipated. UK home ownership now at 35 year lows as demand out strips supply and generation rent continue to enter the market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.




Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, following the rebound on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is returning as U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains. Positive leads then for European markets head of today’s BoE statement, with the Old Lady widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bp to a record low of 0.25%. The BoE also releases its updated inflation report, while the ECB publishes the latest economic bulletin. The calendar is quiet otherwise, with only a French bond sale and unemployment data for Greece.

US Data Reports: Yesterday revealed firm July reading for the ISM-NMI and ADP that signal upside risk for Friday’s July jobs report, though we still expect a 180k nonfarm payroll gain. The ISM-NMI slipped to a still-firm 55.5 after a June pop to a 7-month high of 56.5 from a 2-year low of 52.9 in May, while the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 55.2, after popping to an 8-month high of 56.3 from a 53.1 two-year low in May. For ADP, we saw a 179k July rise that beat our 170k private payroll estimate with a 180k total payroll increase, and this signals slight upside risk given the downward bias in “as reported” ADP. Yesterday’s vehicle sales figures added to the mix with a 6.7% July surge to a solid 17.8 mln rate, despite mounting growth concerns after last week’s lean GDP data.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Evans said “perhaps 1 rate increase this year is appropriate,” in comments to reporters from Chicago. He wants to make sure that the 2% inflation target is achieved, however, and worries that the risks of not getting there during this cycle could be long-lasting (noting the experience of Japan). He does not believe the 2% goal will be hit until 2018 and thinks it’s worthwhile for the FOMC to wait. The real economy is “doing quite well, especially given all the headwinds.. and uncertainty from abroad,” he added. He projects growth in the 1.0% to 1.75% area this year (we ask, that’s “quite good?”). The natural rate of unemployment is around 4.75%. He doubts the labor market will generate much inflationary pressure. Evans is a long-time dove, but is not a voter this year.

WTI crude: Quickly bounced back to session highs of $41.39 from $39.24 lows, with the rally coming on the back of higher gasoline prices. The much larger than expected draw in RBOB gasoline inventories resulted in that contract rallying overnight. It currently trades at $41.00; the ten day losing streak finally broken.

Main Macro Events Today

BOE Preview – We expect a 25 bp chop of the repo rate, which would dislodge it from 0.5%, where it’s been since March 2009, and put it at a new record low of 0.25%. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP 375 bln of total of assets accumulated between 2009 and 2012. The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system. BoE MPC’s Weale, who is by reputation a relatively hawkish member, last week summed up the likely sentiment among fellow Committee members, admitting that the preliminary PMI report for July was “a lot worse than I had thought.”

BOE Press Conference – Mr Carney is normally unflappable and very firm and assertive in the 60 minute press conference. Todays could be particularly spikey if the Bank is seen not been as assertive as has been widely touted. Mr Carney has mentioned a number of times since the Brexit vote of “necessary adjustments”.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Risk appetite is back and the BoE revived hopes of ongoing stimulus measures not just in the U.K.. Stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia overnight, with Japanese markets the notable exception. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and while oil prices have fallen back slightly, the front end WTI future remains above USD 41 per barrel. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, as well as U.K. house price data from Halifax and Italian production data.

BOE Impact Summary: Gilt yields led a dive in sovereign European yields after the BoE over-delivered on easing measures at the conclusion of its August MPC meeting today. The FTSE 100 led consequential gains in European equity markets, while the pound tumbled by more than 1.5% versus the dollar as UK over U.S. yield differentials dove further into negative territory. UK corporate bond yields also dove sharply on news that a portion of new QE purchases will be in investment-grade corporate issues, which is a first for the BoE. The BoE said that it was responding an economic outlook which has “weakened markedly” as a consequence of the uncertainties caused by Brexit. The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street cut the repo to a new record low of 0.25%, as widely expected, accompanying it with a less broadly anticipated recommencement of QE, by a further GBP 70 bln, with GBP 10 bln set aside for investment-grade corporate bonds. The BoE also surprised with the provision of GBP 100 bln for a “Term Funding Scheme,” which is a new tool for UK policy that will provide loans to banks provided that they are passed onto real-economy customers.

US Data Reports: Revealed modestly stronger than expected factory orders thanks to firmness in nondurable shipments and orders alongside minor orders and equipment tweaks in the durables data. Yet, weak inventories trimmed our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 1.0% from the 1.2% advance figure. We still peg Q3 GDP growth at 2.6%. We also saw a 3k initial claims rise to 269k in the final week of July, though we still have a lean July level overall thanks to this year’s limited auto retooling, and we still expect a 180k July nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, a producer sentiment updraft, a firm 179k ADP rise, a June-July vehicle assembly rebound led by a 9.6% June surge to a 12.5 mln clip before a likely further July climb, and a 6.4% July vehicle sales surge to a 17.8 mln rate.

ECB Outlook: The BoE’s comprehensive set of measures today has set the stage for a policy review from the ECB in September, when the central bank has its own updated set of staff projections. So far surveys don’t suggest that confidence has been hit by the Brexit vote, on the contrary and that in itself should already help to limit the fallout on investment and spending decisions. Still, the BoE’s move, which sent Sterling down, has clearly also increased pressure on Draghi to follow up with at least some tweaking of the QE program. Helicopter money clearly isn’t an issue for the ECB at the moment, but as supply constraints become evident in the bond buying spree, the push for a move away from the distribution of purchases according to the ECB’s capital key towards greater focus on outstanding debt, is getting stronger. Such a step would bring the ECB further away from the already weakened “no-bailout clause” enshrined in the Maastricht treaty, and likely spark additional challenges in Germany, but how long Weidmann and Schaeuble can stem the ever greater push for a mutualisation of risk and debt is anybody’s guess in this environment.

Fed Policy Outlook: The BoE’s easing has added to market expectations that the FOMC will remain sidedlined through the rest of the year. Implied Fed funds are now suggesting only about 18% risk for a tightening next month. That’s down about 10 percentage points from late July after the somewhat upbeat FOMC policy statement. Risk for a hike by year end has dipped to about 35% from 45% late last month too. The futures market, however, is also being impacted by the rally in Treasuries. The impending October 14 deadline on money market reforms, as well as the November 8 presidential election are key factors that will limit Fed action at the September 20, 21, and November 1, 2 FOMC meetings. Growth and inflation should have risen enough by the December 13, 14 policy meeting to enable the Fed to get back on the normalization path.

Main Macro Events Today

NFP Preview – Consensus is for a headline figure of 180k, it could, however, easily be over 200k again. Look for revisions to previous months’ data and for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.8%. Earnings growth has remained stubbornly low, expectation are again for 0.2%.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 9th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by another rise in Japan (+0.69%), where volumes were low, and hopes of BoJ support and the bounce back in oil prices underpinned markets. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also trending higher and the front end WTI future is above highs, but remains above USD 42 per barrel. Released overnight, U.K. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected (see more below). This should continue to underpin risk appetite, together with hope of further central bank action not just from the BoE, but also the ECB, which has been put under pressure by the BoE’s bold action. Spanish, Italian and Portuguese bond yields are all at record lows as the ECB heads for a policy review in September. Today’s European calendar still has German trade data as well as U.K. production data for June.

BOE McCafferty: “Bank rate can be cut further, closer to zero, and quantitative easing can be stepped up” should the UK economic outlook worsen. He believes a more gradual approach should be taken towards monetary policy as information of how the economy has reacted to the June 23 referendum is still very limited. McCafferty has previously opposed raising the target for quantitative easing government bond purchases. Cable broke the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the release of his comments.

Data Reports: Chinese inflation fell to 1.8% from 1.9% last time but better than the expected 1.7%, PPI figures were also a beat coming in at -1.7% from -2.6% last time.

UK July BRC retail sales unexpectedly rose 1.1% y/y in the like-for-like measure, with consumers wallets sharply contrasting to what consumers mouths were saying after the GfK consumer confidence figure for the same month fell by a series record in the wake of the late-June referendum on EU membership. The BRC noted that nothing materially changed for households in the month after the Brexit vote, while summer sales helped entice consumers to spend after a weather-affected 0.5% drop in sales in June. The BRC cautioned that “the big question for retailers is whether that success can be carried forward into full price sales.”

Germany posted a trade surplus of EUR 21.6 bln in June, down from EUR 22.1 bln in the previous month, as exports rose a modest 0.3% m/m after falling -1.1% m/m in May, while imports rose 1.1% m/m. June data meant the sa trade surplus widened to EUR 67.8 bln the second quarter of the year from EUR 61.9 bln in the first quarter. This is nominal data of course, which also reflects exchange rate and oil price developments, but nevertheless, the numbers point to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the second quarter, which should help to compensate for the disappointing production drop.

Main Macro Events Today

US Productivity – The first release on Q2 productivity is out today and should reveal a 0.6% annualized pace for the headline after a -0.6% figure in Q1. Unit labour costs are expected to be 1.4% from 4.5% in Q1. The first release on Q2 GDP revealed a subdued headline of 1.2% but this was still stronger than the 0.8% pace in Q1.

US Wholesale Trade – June wholesale trade data is also out today and should show a 0.8% increase for headline sales while inventories remain unchanged on the month. This would follow respective May figures of 0.5% for sales and unchanged for inventories. Data in line with this forecast would leave the I/S ratio ticking down to 1.34 from 1.35 in May and 1.36 in the three months prior to that.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets recovered from yesterday’s drop and are posting broad gains, following on from a positive close on Wall Street and ahead of earnings data from Chinese banks. Japanese markets underperformed after yesterday’s rally and indices have closed flat (Nikkei 16,725) having swung between gains and losses despite a weaker Yen, as data showed retail sales and household spending declined. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, while the FTSE 100 future is down on the day after yesterday’s holiday and following losses on other European markets yesterday. Oil prices are slightly higher with the front end WTI future holding slightly above USD 47 per barrel. The calendar is heating up today, with the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator, (see below) as well as preliminary Aug inflation data from Spain and Germany. The U.K. has BoE lending data and money supply figures.

The Yen still in focus:. Chief Japanese cabinet secretary Suga “says government watching markets closely and ready to respond appropriately”. The government is ready to take decisive steps against excessive fx moves. Government and the BOJ “as one” in defeating deflation. Reiterated the BOJ’s independence and confident that Abenomics will exert positive effects and that Japans banks will benefit in the long term. Markets are not convinced USDJPY struggling to hold rally over 102.10 following comments. Earlier data releases that although better than expected (unemployment at 21 year low of 3.0%) household spending is still very weak and disappointed. Even more stimulus to be expected which may be enough to flip USDJPY into buy the dip mode, from sell the rally seen for the past couple of weeks.

US Data Reports: Fed funds futures rallied a yesterday after crashing lower on Friday’s Fedspeak. The concurrent dip in implied rates is suggesting second thoughts about the likelihood of a September rate hike. The Sep contract now reflects about a 36% chance for a 25 bp hike next month, down from 42% at the close. Dec is still showing about a 59.9% risk for a tightening by the end of the year. Mondays PCE price data helped assuage fears for Fed action next month, as the inflation rate continues to disappoint. Meanwhile, there are potential headwinds to the August jobs report, especially from the auto sector, and a tame report would also lessen the potential for an imminent hike. We still believe December is the better bet.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone ESI So far, confidence indicators have been very mixed. The German ZEW recovered and preliminary PMIs came in higher than anticipated. But the latter also showed that the manufacturing sector is feeling the sting from the Brexit fallout and the stronger EUR and the German Ifo slumped. Against that that background there are expectations that there will be a slip in the August ESI economic confidence indicator to 104.4 from 104.6 in July, although that would still be a fairly robust level and like the PMIs still signals ongoing expansion.

German Aug HICP Inflation in the Eurozone is creeping higher and expectations for preliminary August German HICP to move up to 0.5% y/y from 0.4% y/y in July. However, headline rates, but also core inflation remain considerably below the ECB’s target of below but close to 2% and while the numbers at such don’t argue for further easing, they leave Draghi room to maneuver especially as the appreciation of the EUR against the Pound will add to downward pressures going ahead.

US Consumer Confidence August consumer confidence is out today and should reveal a slight headline decline to 97.0 from 97.3 in July and 97.4 in June. Other measures of confidence have been mixed so far in August with Michigan Sentiment falling to 89.8 from 90.0 in July but with an IBD/TIPP Poll increase to 48.4 from 45.5 in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.




Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 31st August 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st August 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, the Japanese Nikkei 225 close up 0.97% at 16,887, with banks and oil producers leading gains. The Hang Seng is little changed and the ASX down, but mainland Chinese markets are moving higher. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are little changed and FTSE 100 futures are heading south. Oil prices are little changed on the day after the front end WTI future fell below USD 47 per barrel Tuesday amid firm U.S. confidence data as Fed’s Fischer repeated that rate hikes will be data dependent and that the economy is close to full employment. The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.2% y/y, after weaker than expected German data yesterday. German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to 10.0% from 10.1%.

The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. USDJPY rose for a fourth straight session, this time making a one-month high of 103.22. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the 50-day moving average at 102.69, which now reverts as support. Most yen crosses have followed, with EURJPY also making a one-month peak, and AUDJPY a two-week high. The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Increased odds for a September rate hike by the Fed, juxtaposed to the likelihood of further easing by the BoJ at its September 20th-21st policy meeting, have been underpinning USDJPY, which we expect to remain the case in the coming weeks, although Friday’s U.S. jobs report will be a key determiner. EURUSD, meanwhile, has remained heavy in the mid 1.11s, though holding above yesterday’s three-week low at 1.1132. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain. At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July.

US Data Reports: The U.S. consumer confidence pop to an 11-month high of 101.1 reversed the July drop to 96.7 from 97.4 to leave the measure still-below the 103.8 cycle-high in January of 2015. Despite today’s consumer confidence upswing, the full array of confidence indicators continues to trend sideways in 2016. The Michigan sentiment index fell to 89.8 from 90.0, versus a 98.1 cycle-high last January. The IBD/TIPP index rose to 48.4 in August from 45.5 in July but a similar 48.2 in June, versus a 54.0 cycle-high in October of 2012. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a 43.6 average thus far in August from a 43.4 average in both June and July, versus a 45.7 cycle-high average in April of 2015. Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of 2016 as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes. Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U.S. election campaigns.

Fedspeak: Fed VC Fischer may be out on a hawkish limb on his own, speculates a Bloomberg article that is in line with the muted market reaction to his words overnight compared to the reaction in which he hijacked the Jackson Hole calm following Yellen’s speech Friday. Others such as Bullard and Lockhart have been more circumspect on the “hike or two” front this year, leading some analysts to wonder if Fischer is more of an outlier rather than a shadow Chairman. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. Of course, the August payrolls report could be the swing factor for or against a September hike, by Fischer’s own admission. The next round of Fedspeak will be from doves Rosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderate Kashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. This could slow the USD rise ahead of ADP’s today and NFP data on Friday.

Main Macro Events Today

Canadian GDP Real Q2 GDP, is expected to fall 1.8% after the 2.4% increase in Q1. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall. Also, real exports plunged 19.9%, suggestive of a big drag from net exports. Real GDP is expected to rebound 4.0% in Q3 as shuttered production comes back on-line and rebuilding commences in the region.

Eurozone HICP After yesterday’s weaker than expected German HICP number we have lowered our forecast for the overall Eurozone rate to 0.2% y/y, which would leave it unchanged from July. The Spanish HICP rate rose markedly, to -0.3% y/y from -0.7% y/y, but the Belgian headline rate also ticked lower and the French reading, due early today, is also seen unchanged. Inflation rates are only very gradually moving higher and remain firmly below the ECB’s definition of price stability. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: European stock futures are higher, following on from a mixed session in Asia, where Japanese bourses managed to move higher in tandem with the Hang Seng after improvements in Japan and China manufacturing PMIs. Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. The U.S. jobs report tomorrow is moving into focus and investors and central bankers look to data for clues on the timing of a possible Fed hike. The ECB meanwhile seems eager to prevent any build up of easing speculation ahead of next week’s meeting and Draghi is still remarkably stumm as the block out period for central bank comments starts. Today’s European calendar focuses on PMI readings, which in the case of the final Eurozone reading is not expected to hold major surprises, while the U.K. number is hoped to lift slightly from the post Brexit slump in July.

Oil & Gold: Commodities under pressure – WTI crude has traded under the $45/bbl mark for the first time since August 15, touching $44.49 lows, as the combination of higher U.S. inventories, and a firm dollar continue to weigh. Bigger picture, an OPEC production freeze is not expected at the September meeting in Algiers, despite recent comments from Iraq’s oil minister, who said he would support a freeze. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. Gold dropped to new two-month lows of $1,304.10 from near $1,316.00, on a reported large sale (nominal $4 bln-plus), rumored to be linked to the cutting of a large long position. This may have been the result of the in-line ADP jobs data, and ahead of Friday’s official employment report. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices.

US Data Reports: Revealed an August Chicago PMI drop to 51.5 from 55.8 in July and a 17-month high of 56.8 in June, as these numbers unwind the mid-year auto-retooling boost, while ADP posted a firm 177k August rise after a big July boost to 194k from 179k. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June. The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our 185k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the 17.2 mln area in August after the July pop to a 17.8 mln rate.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari wants to see core inflation rise and needs more data before considering a rate hike, speaking on DJ News. Sounds like the moderate regional Fed president is still on the dovish side of the fence, though he’s not a voter in this rotation. These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.

Main Macro Events Today

US Manufacturing ISM August ISM is out today and is expected to decline slightly to 52.0 (median 52.0) from 52.6 in July and 53.2 in June. Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at 14:00 GMT.

US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to 269k (median 264k) from 261k in the week prior and 262k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at 263k from 260k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at 185k with a 4.8% unemployment rate for August.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 6th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, with the ASX a notable exception as the Aussie strengthened following Bank of Australia’s decision to keep rates steady. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, despite the fact that U.K. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down -0.9% y/y, against expectations for another marked rise. German factory orders disappointed and previous month revised down (see below) – EURUSD overnight lows 1.1140 currently 1.1150. The Eurozone also has the detailed reading of Q2 GDP, and elsewhere Switzerland releases Q2 GDP and August inflation data.

FX Summary: The dollar and euro traded softer against most other currencies, with markets taking Friday’s payrolls report as lowering the odds for the Fed to hike rates at its FOMC meeting later this month, while data left prospects for unchanged policy with dovish guidance at the ECB’s meeting this week. USD-JPY declined by over 0.5% to the 103s and EUR-JPY fell by 0.7%. Cable popped higher on the back of a record month-to-month rebound in the UK’s August services PMI, but gains failed to sustain as such an outcome had been well flagged by the stellar rebounds already seen in last week’s construction and manufacturing PMI reports. USD-CAD extended Friday’s post-U.S. jobs losses, with the Canadian dollar rallying concomitantly with oil prices. News that Russia and Saudi Arabia had signed an agreement to set up a “working group” to think of ways to curtail crude market volatility boosted crude. (see below)

Oil Update: Oil prices sprang higher on news of a Saudi-Russia agreement, signed on the sidelines of the G20 meetings, to set up a “working group” to discuss ideas about how to minimise market volatility. WTI crude was up nearly 5% at the $46.50 intraday peak, overnight it traded to $44.75 before recovering to $45.30. A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Falih, said that that Iranian production has now reached pre-sanctions levels, suggesting that there is scope for Tehran to agree to a production freeze. The global supply glut remains and there will have to be some significant compromise in Algiers if the $50 is to be recovered.

German July manufacturing orders rose 0.2%: This was less than hoped and even with June revised marginally higher to -0.3% m/m from -0.4% m/m, the annual rate remained stuck in negative territory. Still, the -0.7% y/y reading is a clear improvement from the -3.0% y/y in the previous month, although looking at the dip in the manufacturing PMI, and the sharp downward revision to the German services PMI growth projections going ahead will have to be revised again and the weaker orders data will add to the arguments of the doves at the ECB. Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped -3.0%.

Main Macro Events Today

US Non-Manufacturing PMI – 14:00 GMT – Forecast for a slight rise to 55.7 from 55.5. Last July’s spike to 59.6 set a new post-recession high. The ISM-adjusted figure for the ISM-NMI tends to track that of the Philly Fed. The August Philly Fed index rose to 2.0 from -2.9, but the ISM-adjusted measure fell to 47.2 from 51.3.

NZD GDT Price Index – The fortnightly Global Dairy Trade Index is published and with a strong recovery last time to 12.7% sparking a rally in the NZD, today’s data will be followed closely.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan closing down (-0.41% at 17,012) as the Yen strengthened on media reports casting doubt on the BoJ’s willingness to add further easing. The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are posting gains, pointing to opening gains, on stock markets, after yesterday’s broad move south in late trade. Bund and Gilt futures moved higher yesterday, with Bunds outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing going into tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The weak German production figures (see below) will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.K. production data for July, seen falling -0.1%. The Swedish Riksbank meeting will be watched carefully as a precursor to tomorrow’s ECB meeting and the central bank are likely to keep the Repo rate steady at -0.5%.

FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a 12-day low at 101.19 as it extended losses from Friday’s peak at 104.32. The pair has breached below the 20-day moving average, at 101.55, which now reverts as resistance, ahead of 101.93-95 and the 50-day moving average at 102.66. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also fell, causing some indigestion on the Tokyo stock exchange, where the Nikkei 225 closed with a 0.4% loss, underperforming regional peers. Elsewhere, dollar softness saw EUR-USD and AUD-USD edge out respective 12-day highs at 1.1264 and 0.7688. Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.3445.

Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President John Williams: Low level of long-term yields is not just because of fed policy, a ‘reasonable person’ would expect US rates to rise gradually over time. Makes sense to raise rates “sooner rather than later” Inflation expected to rise to 2% in next two years and unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% over the next twelve months. Now is the time to consider new inflation target and “actively study new policy options”.

German July industrial production dropped -1.5%: A much more pronounced decline than even we expected and our forecast for a -0.4% m/m drop was already far below consensus, with Bloomberg predicting a 0.1% m/m rise. In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. June was revised up, but this didn’t prevent the annual rate to drop into negative territory in July. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Inflation Report – 09:00 GMT – Governor Carney and members of the MPC testify before the UK Parliaments Treasury Committee (for approximately 2 hours). Expect some tough questioning from the members as some perceive the BOE’s actions inappropriate, this will be vigorously defended by the Governor and volatility for GBP pairs can be expected.

BOC Rate Statement – 14:00 GMT – The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%. The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 12th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2016.

Main Macro Events Today

United States: This week’s U.S. calendar includes several interesting releases that could have some bearing on the Fed’s decision on September 21. The Treasury budget deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to ease to -$98.0 bln in August from -$112.8 bln in July,. The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due (Wednesday), along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices -0.1% in August, while there may be an EIA inventory correction from huge storm-related draws last week that bolstered crude oil above $47 bbl before the boom went bust Friday. On tap next is August retail sales (Thursday), forecast to rise 0.2% or 0.3% ex-auto, with a downward bias given weak auto sales and mixed employment. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.0 in September vs 2.0, whereas the Empire State may rise to -1.0 in September vs -4.2. Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to 270k), with August industrial production to shrink 0.5% vs 0.7% and capacity use dipping to 75.5% from 75.9%. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0.1% in July vs 0.2%. August CPI is seen rising 0.1% headline (Friday) and 0.2% core, while September Michigan sentiment (preliminary) rises to 90.5 from 89.8 in August.

Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing (Friday), which is expected to reveal a 1.0% gain in shipment values during July following the 0.8% gain in June. The August existing home sales report (Thursday) and the August Teranet/National Bank HPI (Wednesday) also feature. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins (Wednesday) will present a lecture at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London.

Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release (Tuesday) closely. We are looking for an improvement to 3.0 from 0.5 in the previous month, which would mean the number of those optimistic about the outlook continued to rise. The rest of the week’s data calendar focuses mostly on final inflation readings for August, with the German HICP (Tuesday) expected to be confirmed at 0.3%, the Spanish (Tuesday) at -0.3%, the French (Wednesday) at 0.4% y/y and the Italian (Wednesday) at -0.3% y/y, which should leave the overall Eurozone number on Thursday unrevised from the preliminary reading at 0.2% y/y. Even core inflation at 0.8% y/y remains far below the ECB’s definition of price stability. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement.

UK: The BoE meets on policy (announcing Thursday) for the third time since the vote to leave the EU in late June. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.25%, adjacent to continuing QE operations that were detailed as part of August’s policy bazooka. Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers (Tuesday), employment figures covering July and August (Wednesday), and official August retail sales (Thursday). We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0.7% y/y from 0.6% in July, and the core CPI reading to 1.4% form 1.3%, with the effects of post-Brexit vote weakness in sterling starting to impact. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%, as is the more timely claimant count rate, at 2.2%. Retail sales are seen dipping 0.2% m/m in August, correcting after the strong a July, when sales rose 1.4% m/m.

China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively due Monday, followed by August industrial production (Tuesday), which is expected to inch up to 6.1% y/y from 6.0% previously. August retail sales (Tuesday) are penciled in at 10.1% y/y from 10.2%. August fixed investment (Tuesday) is seen slowing to a 7.8% y/y clip from 8.1%.

Japan: The Q3 MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is expected to reveal deterioration to -13.0 from -11.1 in Q2. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production (Wednesday) is seen unchanged at 0.0% y/y.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. Assistant Governor, Economics, Kent delivers a speech at the Bloomberg Breakfast Address (Tuesday). Head of Payments Policy Department, Tony Richards, speaks at the 26th Annual Credit Law Conference (Wednesday). Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Guy Debelle takes the podium in London at the TradeTech FX Europe Conference (Wednesday). August employment (Thursday) is expected to improve 20.0k after the 26.2k rise in July. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7% in August, identical to the 5.7% seen in July.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2016.

FX News Today

Central banks are in the spotlight this week, with the focus on the FOMC and BoJ. And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. With some policymakers starting to doubt the effectiveness of the low and negative rate structures, there’s increased uncertainty over just what will be announced, with the BoJ having perhaps the biggest opportunity to surprise with either its decisions on rates or QE purchases.

United States: The FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday) dominates the landscape. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment. Indeed, Fed funds futures are suggesting a very low probability of less than 15%. A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. The September NAHB homebuilder survey leads off (Monday) and is expected to hold steady at 60. August housing starts (Tuesday) are projected falling to a 1.193 mln pace, after two consecutive monthly gains. Existing home sales (Thursday) should bounce 1.7% to a 5.480 mln. Weekly jobless claims, the August leaders index, the July FHFA home price index, and the KC Fed manufacturing survey are also due Thursday, with the preliminary Markit PMI manufacturing report on Friday.

Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday.

Canada: CPI and retails sales highlight the week’s slate of economic data, which also includes wholesale trade. Total CPI (Friday) is seen expanding at a 1.4% and The Bank of Canada’s core CPI measure is projected to moderate to 2.0%. Retail sales (Friday) are anticipated to rise 0.3% with the the ex-autos retail aggregate is expected to gain 0.6%. Wholesale shipments (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.2% in July. Bank of Canada governor Poloz speaks Tuesday in Quebec City, with a press conference to follow.

Europe: This week’s data calendar is the timely set of confidence indicators in the form of preliminary September PMI readings (Friday). Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5 and an uptick in the services reading to 52.9, and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8. Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.

UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September (Thursday), where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Wednesday), as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday. The pound finished the day with a 1.8% loss to the dollar and with an average decline of 1.4% against the G3 currencies.

China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week.

Japan: is closed Monday for Respect-for-the Aged Day holiday, and again on Thursday for the Autumnal Equinox holiday, bookending the two-day BoJ meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday). The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The August trade report (Tuesday) should show a narrowing in the surplus to JPY 250.0 bln from the revised 513.6 bln in July. The July all-industry index (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% m/m versus the June 1.0% increase.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting (Tuesday), when policymakers held rates steady at 1.50% and shifted to a more balanced policy bias (from a tilt toward further easing). There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due (Tuesday).

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20 September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with some bourses swinging between gains and losses, as traders hold back ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and BoJ announcements. The Nikkei closed down -0.16%. The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.S. session as the oil prices dipped again and with the front end WTI futures falling further today and threatening to fall below USD 43 per barrel, risk appetite has faded. U.S. stock futures are posting slight gains, but the FTSE 100 is down, suggesting that European markets are poised for a correction in catch up trade. The European calendar is virtually empty.

RBA Minutes: “Rising AUD would complicate rebalancing of the economy”, following slow down on mining investment. The decline in the AUD since 2013 has “continued to support traded sector of economy”. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. “Economy growing in line with potential” and current stance on policy “consistent with growth and inflation targets”. Looks like its neutral for longer and same tone as other “data dependent” central banks. AUDUSD 0.7540 and capped by the 20 DMA.

German PPI: the German PPI for August missed expectations coming in at -0.1% (0.0% expected). Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. EURUSD remains in tight overnight range pivoting around 1.1170.

U.S. NAHB Homebuilder sentiment index jumped to 65 in September: This was up 6 points from 59 in August (revised down from 60 previously). It’s the highest since last October, which was also a 65 print, and was 61 a year ago. The 2016 range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from 66. The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from 44. All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from 68.

FX Update: All quiet on the forex front, with the main currency pairings having posted ultra narrow ranges as market participants remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions. Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its -0.1% reserve deposit rate further into negative territory while skewing QQE purchases toward the shorter and middle parts of the maturity spectrum to facilitate curve steepening, with the aim of mitigating the negative effects the program has had on financial intermediation. 60% of respondents to a Reuters expected the BoJ to move this week, though there was some discord among those anticipating action in the extent of what the central bank will do. With the costs and benefits of the three-year old QQE program fading, many expect a shift in policy focus to interest rates and NIRP. How markets react is a tough call, though we think the risks for USD-JPY are to the downside. Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.

Main Macro Events Today

BOJ Outlook – The two day meeting started earlier today and the announcement and press conference are scheduled for 03:00 GMT on Wednesday. There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme.

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting starts later with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively on Wednesday. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20st September 2016.

FX News Today

The BoJ: Announced a policy framework overhaul, which it called “QQE with yield curve control.” It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. The BoJ said the scale of the QQE program remained on hold, and that overall asset purchases would remain “more or less in line with the current pace,” although the maturity target has been abolished. The timeframe for achieving the 2% inflation target has been set, quite simply, as “the earliest possible time.” Aside from detailing the new framework, the BoJ also provided an assessment of the failure to have pushed CPI to 2%, blaming “exogenous factors,” including the fall in oil prices, sluggish global demand and financial market volatility. On the economy, the BoJ said recovery “is likely to remain slow.” The yen dove nearly 1% as markets digested the new framework see below.

FX Update: USDJPY is registering a near 1% gain as the London interbank take to their desks. After initially dipping as the BoJ refrain from extending its NIRP policy, the pair rallied as the yen fell across-the-board as markets digested an overhaul in the BoJ’s policy framework. It left the 0.1% negative rate charged on excess reserves unchanged, while detailing a reworked QQE program. The central bank abandoned its base money target and replaced it with “yield curve control,” whereby the BoJ will target 10-year JGB yields at current levels around 0%. The second part of the new policy framework is “inflation-overshooting commitment,” where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target. USD-JPY clocked an eight-day high at 102.78. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses also vaulted higher. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. Spill over dollar strength following the BoJ’s announcement drove EUR-USD to a three-week low at 1.1123.

BoC’s Poloz said it is unclear if the bank will cut its forecast in October, responding to a question in his recently started Q&A with the press. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained. Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt. But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. As for the renewal of the 2% inflation targeting mandate that is due in upcoming weeks, he said it is the Finance Department’s decision to make. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.

European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. The Bank said it is shifting to a greater focus on the shape of the yield curve saying that it will increase bond purchases “more of less in line with the current pace” of 80 trillion yen per year. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets. U.S. and U.K. futures are also higher ahead of the Fed decision, which is likely to see policy unchanged leaving the focus on the forward guidance. Oil prices are also higher, although the front end WTI future is down from earlier highs of over USD 45 per barrel at currently USD 44.89. European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U.K. public finance data. ECB’s Praet meanwhile stressed again this morning that the central bank will maintain a high degree of monetary accommodation.

Main Macro Events Today

FOMC Outlook – The two day FOMC meeting started yesterday with the announcement and press conference scheduled for 18:00 and 18:30 GMT respectively later today. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now. Additionally, recent data reports haven’t gone the Fed’s way, with weakness in employment, retail sales, and manufacturing, along with still low/moderate inflation trends.

RBNZ – Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2.00% level, still by far the the highest in the G10 countries.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.


Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd September 2016.

FX News Today

The FOMC: No change and no surprise the result was a bit of a tangled web of contradictions. The Fed said the case for a rate hike had strengthened, though policymakers for the “time being” decided to hold off and allow the economy “some room to run.” Yet there were three dissents (Mester, George and Rosengren) in favour of an immediate hike, indicating acrimony beneath the surface as on the other side three members see the possibility of no rate increase this year. The Fed’s own economic and policy projections were mostly downgraded, seemingly at odds with their hair-trigger outlook. Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November. In her press conference MRs Yellen maintained that all meetings were “live” and the move to keep interest rates on hold “does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy” but was due to a slow uptake of labour-market slack and inflation below the 2% target. CMEGroup’s federal funds futures now shows a 60% chance of a rate rise in December.

RBNZ: Also no change and suggested a decline in the NZD is needed, monetary policy to remain accommodative and “further easing will be required”. Weak global growth and low rates continues to put upward pressure on NZD and makes it difficult for the RBNZ to reach its 2% inflation target. Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration (which is also keeping earnings growth down) tourism and construction. House price inflation remains “excessive”. Outlook for the key Dairy season remains “uncertain”. NZDUSD rose to 0.7370 before falling back to 0.7330.

FX Update: USDJPY extended into one-month low territory under 100.10 as markets digest yesterday’s Fed and BoJ policy decisions and guidance of yesterday. To recap, the BoJ overhauled its policy framework, introducing “QQE with yield curve control” and an “inflation-overshooting commitment,” but the main policy rate and the -0.1% rate on selected reserves, and other policy variables, were left unchanged — there was no actually increase in stimulus. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in 2017 was reduced relative to guidance given in June. USDJPY has duly reacted with a downward shift. The August-16 low at 99.54 provides the next downside target, and below here is the post-Brexit vote low at 98.98. Japanese policymakers won’t be liking the appreciation of the yen, so we can expect more rhetorical warnings, but it will hard for them to justify actual interventions while yield differentials are moving in favour of further USDJPY declines. Outside the case of USDJPY, the dollar is broadly lower, showing about an average 0.3% decline versus the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar currently. GBPUSD formed a tweezer bottom on last night’s daily candle.

European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied (Japan was closed for a holiday), following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday. The FOMC said the case for a hike “has strengthened”, but decided to stay put for the time being, FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, but U.S. stock futures are already in the red again. Bund futures managed to recover losses in after hour trade and in the wake of the Fed decision and could see some early gains, after yesterday’s sell off, although stock moves and the realization that neither BoJ nor ECB are eager to delve further into negative interest rate territory, should keep a lid on gains. Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. Oil prices are higher, with the front end WTI future currently trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U.K’s CBI industrial Trends survey and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence numbers in the afternoon. The ECB releases its latest economic bulletin, although the articles have already been published in advance this week so there shouldn’t be big surprises.

Main Macro Events Today

US Initial Jobless claims – Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at 260k (median 262k), steady from last week and just above 259k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average 260k in September from 262k in August and 260k in July. Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up 170k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4.9%.

Draghi and Carney speeches – Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. First up is President Draghi at 13:00 GMT at the ESRB in Frankfurt and later Governor Carney (17:00 GMT) in Berlin.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 23rd September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd September 2016.

FX News Today

US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.5% July rise in the FHFA home price index. The 0.9% August existing home sales drop to a 5.33 mln rate left a Q3 trimming of Q2 gains, though the median price decline to $240,200 was largely seasonal and left that figure close to the $247,600 all-time high in June. The 0.2% August leading indicators drop tracked estimates, with weakness that reflects declines in the factory sensitive sectors. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to 252k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the 42-year low of 248k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the 170k September nonfarm payroll estimate.

U.S. VIX equity volatility slumped 10%: It fell below 12.0 after the Fed on Wednesday and that’s put the VIX within a hair of 11.65 September lows compared to highs of 20.51 earlier in the month when the ECB held rates pat rather than easing again as expected (nothing to see here, no correlation). Year lows of 11.02 appear to be within reach, while life lows of 8.2 lie below as the markets continue to disbelieve the “cry wolf” hawkish Fedspeak, though 3 dissenters would suggest the Fed is very close to a second hike. Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the 26.72 Brexit high back on the radar. Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2,119.1 in September, the S&P 500 looks poised to take another stab at 2,193.81 life highs set on August 15, barring a swing in the polls ahead of November elections.

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down (Nikkei closed -0.32%) . Australia’s ASX outperformed, as mining and energy stocks and especially gold led the way. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are also slightly in the red and oil prices are down from highs of over USD 46 per barrel. Consolidation after yesterday/s celebration of the Fed’s steady hand policy, seems to be the order of the day, but while European stocks are likely to see some correction investors seem to be breathing more easily now. The 10-year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat. The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The final reading for French Q2 GDP meanwhile is not expected to hold any surprise.

FX Update: The dollar has firmer back some following yesterday’s underperformance as the fizz of the post-FOMC risk-on theme abated. EURUSD has ebbed back to the 1.1200 area after peaking yesterday at an eight-day at 1.1257, and Cable has breached below yesterday’s low in making 1.3030. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance. USDJPY clocked a two-session high at 101.24 earlier in Tokyo, and has since ebbed back to the 100.90 area. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also softer. Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone PMI – After the mixed August numbers, expectations are for a stabilization in September with only a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to 51.5, from 51.7 in the previous month, which should partly be compensated by the expected uptick in the services reading to 52.9 from 52.8 and thus leave the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52.8, versus 52.9 in August.

Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales – July Retail Sales are expected to pick up from -0.1% reading in June to 0.1% (MoM) whilst CPI YoY for August is also expected to tick up to 1.4% from 1.3%. The MoM figure should rise to 0.1% for August from -0.2% in July.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.S. presidential debate and judged Clinton the winner. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, after yesterday’s sell off where concerns about Deutsche Bank AG weighed on financial stocks in Europe and a drop in yields hit U.S. banks. Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD 1341 yesterday before settling to 1334. The European calendar has German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as EMU M3 money supply growth and the U.K.’s CBI distributive trade survey.

FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign. Trump’s protectionist views on trade (he said during the debate that NAFTA was the worse trade deal that the U.S. had ever signed) doesn’t sit too well with markets. The peso rallied by over 1.5%, driving USDMXN to an eight-day lows below 19.50. USDCAD, meanwhile, dove back under 1.3200 as the Canadian dollar rallied, having earlier logged a six-month peak at 1.3275. USDJPY lifted as stocks rebounded in Asia, with the pair recouping toward 101.00 after earlier logging a one-month low at 100.08. EURUSD remained mired in a narrow range in the mid 1.12s.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan would have been comfortable with a September hike, he said in comments at an energy sector event. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in 2017. He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. He wants to wait to see how the next three months unfold and added he’ll be hawkish at times, and dovish at times. Fed governor Tarullo would like a tougher capital plan for large U.S. banks, while affording a little relief for smaller lenders, estimating that the largest banks would likely hold “significantly more” capital under forthcoming “stress test” reforms from the Fed.

ECB’s Draghi: Monetary policy has been very effective, adding that the policy effect is not yet “exhausted”, while stressing again that low interest rates are a symptom of low growth. At the same time, Draghi said the ECB never discussed monetary financing, although of course the German legal challenges against some of Draghi’s emergency measures show that not everyone shares the same definition of that.

US Data Reports: Revealed a 7.6% new home sales drop to a still-solid 609k August rate that trimmed the hefty July pop to an upwardly-revised 659k (was 654k) expansion-high to leave a respectable sales path into Q3. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well. We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to -3.7 in September from -6.2, leaving both an upward trend and a 21st consecutive reading in negative territory. The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable 51.2 from 50.7 in August.

Main Macro Events Today

US Consumer Confidence – September consumer confidence is out later and should reveal a headline decline to 98.0 from 101.1 in August which is still above July’s 96.7. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at 89.8 from August and the IBD/TIPP Poll declined to 46.7 from 48.4 in August.

Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speech – Mr Fischer is due to give a speech in Washington with the whimsical title “Why Study Economics”. Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are heading south, led by a slide in Japanese markets, (Nikkei closed down -1.31%) as more than half the companies on the benchmark traded without the right to the next dividend, a biannual event in Japan that tends to weigh on markets. Elsewhere financials remained under pressure as concerns over Deutsche Bank AG continue to weigh on the sector. Oil prices are volatile and the front end WTI future has fallen below USD 45 per barrel, as investors scale back hopes of an agreement on output limits at the OPEC meeting. Gold suffered at decline to $1325 from over $1338. U.S. stock futures are down, but the FTSE 100 future is managing slight gains. The European calendar remains relatively quiet, German consumer confidence has already reported and missed expectations (10.2) coming in at 10.0. EURUSD trades at 1.1208.

Oil headlines from Algeria: No agreement to cap or freeze oil output as early as today, but that’s not ruled out for subsequent meetings, largely in line with earlier reports. The Saudis said the gap among OPEC countries is narrowing and Russia will meet with them again in October. Iran, Libya and Nigeria should be allowed to produce at maximum levels and once that’s agreed a freeze agreement consensus could be reached by November. Meanwhile the Saudis are investing in spare capacity and can survive at current oil price levels, and don’t see the need for a significant adjustment or cut, while Russia will maintain flat supply in the meantime.

Fedspeak: As expected no surprises from Fed’s VC Fischer from his speech, however, in the following Q&A session he said that he doesn’t want to raise rates too much, noting that 3% wage gains would be consistent with a “reasonable” rate of inflation and we’re beginning to see the fruits of a high pressure labor market. This is consistent with Fischer’s interest in being preemptive on rate hikes, though Brexit and mixed data has hijacked the tightening agenda since he first wanted to do so.

US Data Reports: Revealed a surprising September consumer confidence surge to a 104.1 cycle-high led by the present situation index that bucked weak September readings for other confidence surveys, alongside a small September rise in the Richmond Fed index to a still weak -8 from -11 in August. We saw a slightly larger ISM-adjusted Richmond Fed rise to 50.8 from a 3-year low of 49.7, with gains in all the components except inventories and employment, but with a particularly large employment index drop to a -13 new expansion-low from 7. We appear to be on the cusp of an inventory reversal that will lift GDP growth, though the rise will likely not be captured until Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

US Durable Goods – August durable goods orders expected to fall 1.4%, Shipments expected at -0.5%. Inventories expected unchanged. Durable goods ex- transport expected to fall -0.4%.

Yellen testifies and Draghi speaks – Following Mr Fischer yesterday, today his boss Mrs Yellen testifies in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation. Later Mr Draghi speaks in the German Bundestag with his thoughts on the current developments in the Euro area.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.



Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Energy stocks pushed up Asian markets after OPEC agreed to cut oil production and limit daily output to 32.5-33 million barrels. The front end WTI future is currently trading above USD 47 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also celebrating the deal, which will see European stocks extending yesterday’s gains and is likely to weigh on bond futures. The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator. The U.K. has BoE mortgage approvals, consumer credit and money supply data.

Oil headlines from Algeria: Oil prices surged following the surprise OPEC agreement on production cuts. USOil rallied 5% to $47.46 and UK Oil was up to highs over $49.00. The production cut was between 240k and 740k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between 32.5 mln and 33 mln barrels per day. It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers. Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November.

ECB’s Draghi: ECB countered threat of new “great depression”. Defending the ECB’s policies to German parliamentarians Draghi said after a visit to the lower house that other policies must contribute much more decisively while the ECB must allow its measures to develop for full impact. The central bank president stressed that the ECB doesn’t see overheating in the Eurozone or German economies although he admitted that low rates for long may risk asset-overvaluation risk and that ECB policy is not the main factor in low bank profitability.

Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating. There’s no meaningful upward pressure on inflation, however, and she’s pleasantly surprised that the jobless rate has not fallen of late and there’s “no fixed time table for interest rate moves”. Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. She explained her dissent at the September 20, 21 FOMC, saying the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are sound, which has been “demonstrated by the resiliency it has shown through a numbers of bumps along the road of expansion.” Some of those bumps are, the gyrations in the financial markets at the start of the year, the slowing in China, economic weakness in Europe, the large appreciation in the dollar between mid 2014 and the start of 2016, and the uncertainties over Brexit. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. Earlier Neel Kashkari had stated just how much slack remains in the labor market is the critical question, while the economy should have continued moderate growth of about 2%, while global investors near-term see Treasuries as a safe haven. While the U.S. long-term needs to get its fiscal house in order, it’s not appropriate for the Fed to hold back in order to force the hand of fiscal authorities. Kashkari also found it “alarming” that issues at Wells Fargo could have been going on for years and no one was aware. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers. Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in 2017.

Main Macro Events Today

US GDP – The third release on Q2 GDP is out today and should reveal an upward revision for the headline to 1.5% from 1.1% in the second release, 1.2% in the first release and 0.8% in Q1 of this year. Among the revisions there is likely to be upward revisions for construction of $8 bln, consumption up $4 bln, net exports up $4 bln and intellectual property up $2 bln. Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.2%.

Governor Yellen – Following her testimony in front of the Committee on Financial Services in Washington regarding Supervision and Regulation yesterday, the FED chair is in Kanas City speaking at the Minority Bankers Forum.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 30th September 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th September 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The rally on stock markets didn’t last long and while most European markets still managed to close with gains yesterday, Deutsche Bank (down 7% at one point yesterday) concerns dragged the DAX lower and are also overshadowing markets elsewhere. Wall Street closed with losses and in Asia, lenders were also under pressure, with Nikkei and Hang Seng down more than 1.4% and only mainland Chinese markets managing to carve out gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down as the pressure on Deutsche Bank is building with the sell off in shares of course only adding to the problem and creating a viscous circle. European markets have opened down 1%. Oil prices meanwhile are down on the day, but remain above USD 47 per barrel following the OPEC deal and Gold traded under USD 1316 before recovering to $1323. Released overnight U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected and improved to -1 to -7 in the previous month. In a speech by Mr. Kuroda to the Japanese parliament he explained that the BOJ are internally debating exit strategy from ultra-easy policy but speaking specifically about those means too hastily could cause confusion in markets. The calendar also has German retail sales at the start of the session, French consumer spending and the final reading of U.K. Q2 GDP as well as Eurozone unemployment. The focus, however, will likely be on Eurozone inflation data for September, which is expected to tick higher on base effects.

German retail sales dropped -0.4% m/m in August, while July was revised markedly down to 0.5% m/m from 1.7% m/m reported initially. The annual rate still jumped to 3.7% y/y after falling in July. The three months trend rate also improved. Consumer confidence remains at very high levels and the Ifo index also reported an rise in retail sentiment, but official retail sales, while highly volatile and subject to heavy revisions, only cover part of overall consumption, and the data have only limited bearing for overall consumption trends, which still look solid.

ECBspeak: Visco: QE could last beyond March 2017. The Italian central bank governor hinted that the QE program could be extended beyond the current timeframe to impact inflation and that the inflation may have to be temporarily overshot. At the same time he stressed that QE makes reforms easier not harder and that in Italy, high debt not EU rules are is weighing on budget policies. It is true of course that the ECB’s low interest rate policy is giving governments more room to manoeuvre and thus should make it easier to implement reforms, at the same time though, the low rates also gloss over existing problems and make it a less pressing need for governments to reduce deficits and debt, as the ECB’s program is keeping rates low and reduces market pressure on governments.

Fedspeak: Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari saw no alarm bells that a recession is imminent and no urgency in raising rates with inflation low, but by the same token waiting too long on raising rates was less of a risk that hiking too soon. In any case, if inflation does rise, the Fed has all the tools it needs to bottle it up. He also said that the Fed is not out of ammunition if the economy is hit by recession and concurred that politics is not factoring in at all to Fed decisions. About par from moderate course from Kashkari.

Main Macro Events Today

EMU September Inflation – EMU Sep HICP inflation expected to rise to 0.4% y/y from 0.2% y/y in the previous month, with less negative base effects from energy prices the main driving factor behind the expected uptick. This was already reflected in German and Spanish numbers yesterday but while base effects are lifting the annual rate, readings still remain far below the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability. So while the risk of a deflationary spiral is becoming ever more remote, the data will do little to stop the ECB from continuing with its current expansionary policy stance.

Canada July GDP – Expected to grow 0.3% in July after the 0.6% surge in June that followed the 0.6% plunge in May. Mining, oil and gas production is on track to add to GDP growth, and this could provide an upside surprise. While energy exports values slipped 0.8% in July, prices contracted as the IPPI for energy and petroleum products fell 3.5% m/m. Meanwhile, the manufacturing report’s 2.5% gain in petro and coal production was due to higher volumes at several refineries. The separate real Q3 GDP measure is seen rebounding 3.2% in Q3 (q/q, saar) after the 1.6% drop in Q2.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFblogNews]

Date : 3rd October 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd October 2016.

FX News Today

United States: The calendar highlighted by September nonfarm payrolls, (Friday) which are expected to increase by 170k, with a 160k private payroll gain. Forecast risk is seen as downward, however, as weaker claims and producer sentiment could weigh on the headline. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from 4.9% since June. The workweek is expected to tick up to 34.4 from 34.3 last month. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.2% which would leave a 2.6% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be 0.2% for the month following a 0.1. Also on tap are several other releases worthy of consideration, including ISM manufacturing (Monday), which may bubble back over the 50 boom-bust line in September, having stumbled hard to 49.4 in August. Construction spending may rise 0.4% in August from unchanged in July. September vehicle sales are expected to grow 0.5% to a 17.0 mln pace, up from August, but down from the 17.8 mln 2016 peaks in January and July. The schedule resumes with MBA mortgage applications (Wednesday) and the ADP employment survey forecast to post a 160k print for September vs 177k. The August trade balance may widen to -$43.4 bln vs -$39.5 bln and the ISM non-manufacturing index is set to rise to 53.5 in September vs 51.4. Factory goods orders dip 0.3% in August vs a 1.9% July gain. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 6k to 260k (Thursday) for the October 1 week. Along with employment, wholesale trade and consumer credit (Friday) will round out the week.

Fedspeak resumes with Lacker (hawk) on the economic outlook (Tuesday), followed by Evans (dove) on current economic events and policy. Kashkari (moderate) introduces a child development program (Thursday) followed by Lacker (again) meeting with students followed by a speech on Fed governance. Fed VC Fischer (Friday) speaks on the economy and regulation, while Mester (hawk) discusses “Fed Communications” . Fed Governor Brainard (dove) takes part in an IIF panel on “Blockchain Technology”.

Canada: The calendar picks-up this week, with several heavy hitters due out that will provide further indications of how the economy fared after oil sands production returned to normal in July. The August trade report (Wednesday), with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.3 bln from the -C$2.5 bln shortfall in July. A 1.0% increase in exports is anticipated following the 3.4% surge in July. Employment (Friday) is projected to reveal a 10.0k gain in September jobs following the 26.2k bounce in August. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.0% in September. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is projected to reveal an improvement in the overall outlook, but with a still ample reserve of caution among resource sector firms and related businesses. Q2. Building permit values (Thursday) are seen rising 0.5% m/m in August after the 0.8% gain in July. The Ivey PMI (Friday) rounds out the week, with the index expected to improve to 55.0 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in August.

Europe: Data releases include the final reading of September PMIs with the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI expected to be confirmed at 52.6. and the Services reading at 52.1, which should leave the composite at 52.6, unchanged from the preliminary number. The highlight though will be German manufacturing orders for August (Thursday) where we are looking for a rise of 0.5%, after the modest 0.2% m/m expansion in July. July Ifo numbers surprised on the upside and the manufacturing PMI also rebounded, so that the chances are orders picked up again in August. Industrial production (Friday) should show at least a partial rebound from the -1.5% m/m slump in July and rise 0.8% m/m (med 0.9%). The recovery is limping ahead and so far the labor market has remained on an improving trend and against that background consumption should remain underpinned, but even if Eurozone retail sales (Wednesday) are likely to have dropped -0.3% m/m, as a partial correction from the 1.1% m/m gain in July. ECBspeak comes from Draghi, Coeure and Nowotny among others, with Coeure and Draghi attending the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington at the end of the week.

UK: The calendar is highlighted by the PMI reports for September, along with production data for August, which will increase the body of post-Brexit vote hard data. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) is expected to dip to 52.1 after surging to 53.3 in August. The construction PMI is seen nearly steady at 49.0, which would be a fractional decline from August’s 49.2. The services PMI is expected to ebb to 52.0 from 52.9. While the PMIs are thus seen lower, the overall picture would be of a better than most feared performance of the UK economy following the vote to leave the EU.

China: On holiday all week, but has September services PMI (Friday), along with September foreign direct investment, which is seen slowing to a 4.0% y/y versus the 5.7% reading in August.

Japan: September consumer confidence (Tuesday) likely fell to 41.0 from 42.0. September services PMI is due Wednesday, and 1st 20-day September trade data on tap Friday.

Australia: Te Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday), expected to reveal no change in the current 1.50% rate setting. Assistant Governor (Economic) Kent participates in a panel in Melbourne (Wednesday). Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to fall 0.5% m/m in August after the 11.3% gain in July. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen rising 0.4% m/m in August following the flat reading in July. The trade deficit is projected to widen to -A$2.5 bln in August from -A$2.4 bln in July.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


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